The Iranian regime's institutional resilience and the loyalty of its security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have sustained trader consensus at 83.5% for survival through 2026 despite major shocks. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear and military sites, nationwide protests that erupted in late 2025 were contained through mass arrests, executions, and internet restrictions by early 2026 without triggering defections or loss of urban control. Iranian officials have since asserted authority via May 2026 ceasefire proposals and diplomatic outreach, while external sanctions and blockades have not yet produced economic collapse or unified opposition capable of regime change. Historical precedent of weathering similar pressures reinforces the current pricing, though renewed escalation or leadership fractures remain possible variables before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$17,911,372 交易量
$17,911,372 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$17,911,372 交易量
$17,911,372 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional resilience and the loyalty of its security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have sustained trader consensus at 83.5% for survival through 2026 despite major shocks. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear and military sites, nationwide protests that erupted in late 2025 were contained through mass arrests, executions, and internet restrictions by early 2026 without triggering defections or loss of urban control. Iranian officials have since asserted authority via May 2026 ceasefire proposals and diplomatic outreach, while external sanctions and blockades have not yet produced economic collapse or unified opposition capable of regime change. Historical precedent of weathering similar pressures reinforces the current pricing, though renewed escalation or leadership fractures remain possible variables before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$17,911,372结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional resilience and the loyalty of its security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have sustained trader consensus at 83.5% for survival through 2026 despite major shocks. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear and military sites, nationwide protests that erupted in late 2025 were contained through mass arrests, executions, and internet restrictions by early 2026 without triggering defections or loss of urban control. Iranian officials have since asserted authority via May 2026 ceasefire proposals and diplomatic outreach, while external sanctions and blockades have not yet produced economic collapse or unified opposition capable of regime change. Historical precedent of weathering similar pressures reinforces the current pricing, though renewed escalation or leadership fractures remain possible variables before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$17,911,373结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional resilience and the loyalty of its security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have sustained trader consensus at 83.5% for survival through 2026 despite major shocks. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear and military sites, nationwide protests that erupted in late 2025 were contained through mass arrests, executions, and internet restrictions by early 2026 without triggering defections or loss of urban control. Iranian officials have since asserted authority via May 2026 ceasefire proposals and diplomatic outreach, while external sanctions and blockades have not yet produced economic collapse or unified opposition capable of regime change. Historical precedent of weathering similar pressures reinforces the current pricing, though renewed escalation or leadership fractures remain possible variables before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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