Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Acre polling for the October 4 first-round vote, with surveys from June through August showing him at 42-51% against Lula's 25-29% and single-digit or lower shares for other registered candidates. Traders price his first-place finish at 97.2% because repeated state-specific data reflect entrenched regional preferences for the Liberal Party nominee, elevated Lula rejection rates, and limited inroads by alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema. The first-round structure and Acre's electorate size reinforce this positioning ahead of the October 4 ballot. A late national surge by another contender or unexpected turnout shifts remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before votes are cast.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFlavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Zema <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$10,199 Vol.
$10,199 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro
97%

Zema
<1%

Clariana Barao
<1%

Edmilson Costa
<1%

Lula
<1%

Pablo Marçal
<1%

Renan Santos
<1%

Ronaldo Caiado
<1%

Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%

Samara
<1%

Schriftsteller Augusto Cury
<1%

Hertz Dias
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Zema <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$10,199 Vol.
$10,199 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro
97%

Zema
<1%

Clariana Barao
<1%

Edmilson Costa
<1%

Lula
<1%

Pablo Marçal
<1%

Renan Santos
<1%

Ronaldo Caiado
<1%

Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%

Samara
<1%

Schriftsteller Augusto Cury
<1%

Hertz Dias
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Acre.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Acre. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Acre.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Acre. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Acre polling for the October 4 first-round vote, with surveys from June through August showing him at 42-51% against Lula's 25-29% and single-digit or lower shares for other registered candidates. Traders price his first-place finish at 97.2% because repeated state-specific data reflect entrenched regional preferences for the Liberal Party nominee, elevated Lula rejection rates, and limited inroads by alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema. The first-round structure and Acre's electorate size reinforce this positioning ahead of the October 4 ballot. A late national surge by another contender or unexpected turnout shifts remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before votes are cast.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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