The tight race for Bahia governor in October 2026 reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing only marginal leads or technical ties in first-round voting intentions. Polling fluctuations, including slight edges for Neto in May surveys from firms like Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, have kept the contest competitive amid shifting voter sentiment and national political realignments. Trader consensus assigns ACM Neto the highest probability at 47.5 percent and Jerônimo Rodrigues 39.5 percent, while fringe candidates remain below 1 percent. Key factors that could widen the gap include further polling trends, debate performances, and alignment with national coalitions ahead of the October election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBahia Governor Election Winner
Bahia Governor Election Winner
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 44%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$14,079 Vol.
$14,079 Vol.
4 oct 2026
ACM Neto
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
40%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 44%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$14,079 Vol.
$14,079 Vol.
4 oct 2026
ACM Neto
$3,817 Vol.
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,895 Vol.
40%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race for Bahia governor in October 2026 reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing only marginal leads or technical ties in first-round voting intentions. Polling fluctuations, including slight edges for Neto in May surveys from firms like Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, have kept the contest competitive amid shifting voter sentiment and national political realignments. Trader consensus assigns ACM Neto the highest probability at 47.5 percent and Jerônimo Rodrigues 39.5 percent, while fringe candidates remain below 1 percent. Key factors that could widen the gap include further polling trends, debate performances, and alignment with national coalitions ahead of the October election.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$14,079Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight race for Bahia governor in October 2026 reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing only marginal leads or technical ties in first-round voting intentions. Polling fluctuations, including slight edges for Neto in May surveys from firms like Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, have kept the contest competitive amid shifting voter sentiment and national political realignments. Trader consensus assigns ACM Neto the highest probability at 47.5 percent and Jerônimo Rodrigues 39.5 percent, while fringe candidates remain below 1 percent. Key factors that could widen the gap include further polling trends, debate performances, and alignment with national coalitions ahead of the October election.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$14,079Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race for Bahia governor in October 2026 reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing only marginal leads or technical ties in first-round voting intentions. Polling fluctuations, including slight edges for Neto in May surveys from firms like Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, have kept the contest competitive amid shifting voter sentiment and national political realignments. Trader consensus assigns ACM Neto the highest probability at 47.5 percent and Jerônimo Rodrigues 39.5 percent, while fringe candidates remain below 1 percent. Key factors that could widen the gap include further polling trends, debate performances, and alignment with national coalitions ahead of the October election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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