The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Governor Tiff Macklem described the current stance as broadly appropriate given the central bank’s base-case outlook for moderate GDP growth near 1.5–1.9% and inflation pressures from higher energy prices that are expected to prove transitory before returning to the 2% target. Traders are pricing in stability because recent data show the economy absorbing U.S. tariff effects without triggering sustained price pressures or labor-market deterioration, while forward-looking indicators point to limited near-term adjustments. A sharper-than-expected inflation spike from Middle East supply disruptions or resilient domestic demand could introduce modest hike probabilities, whereas a pronounced slowdown in growth might reopen cut discussions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 96.5%
Increase 2.4%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,779 Vol.
$26,779 Vol.
10 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
Increase
2%
No change 96.5%
Increase 2.4%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,779 Vol.
$26,779 Vol.
10 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$4,634 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$4,413 Vol.
1%
No change
$9,722 Vol.
97%
Increase
$8,011 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Governor Tiff Macklem described the current stance as broadly appropriate given the central bank’s base-case outlook for moderate GDP growth near 1.5–1.9% and inflation pressures from higher energy prices that are expected to prove transitory before returning to the 2% target. Traders are pricing in stability because recent data show the economy absorbing U.S. tariff effects without triggering sustained price pressures or labor-market deterioration, while forward-looking indicators point to limited near-term adjustments. A sharper-than-expected inflation spike from Middle East supply disruptions or resilient domestic demand could introduce modest hike probabilities, whereas a pronounced slowdown in growth might reopen cut discussions.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volumen
$26,779Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Governor Tiff Macklem described the current stance as broadly appropriate given the central bank’s base-case outlook for moderate GDP growth near 1.5–1.9% and inflation pressures from higher energy prices that are expected to prove transitory before returning to the 2% target. Traders are pricing in stability because recent data show the economy absorbing U.S. tariff effects without triggering sustained price pressures or labor-market deterioration, while forward-looking indicators point to limited near-term adjustments. A sharper-than-expected inflation spike from Middle East supply disruptions or resilient domestic demand could introduce modest hike probabilities, whereas a pronounced slowdown in growth might reopen cut discussions.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$26,779Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s April 29 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 2.25% underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Governor Tiff Macklem described the current stance as broadly appropriate given the central bank’s base-case outlook for moderate GDP growth near 1.5–1.9% and inflation pressures from higher energy prices that are expected to prove transitory before returning to the 2% target. Traders are pricing in stability because recent data show the economy absorbing U.S. tariff effects without triggering sustained price pressures or labor-market deterioration, while forward-looking indicators point to limited near-term adjustments. A sharper-than-expected inflation spike from Middle East supply disruptions or resilient domestic demand could introduce modest hike probabilities, whereas a pronounced slowdown in growth might reopen cut discussions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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