The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25 percent following the April 29 meeting underpins the 96.7 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Softening labor-market conditions, including an April employment decline and unemployment near 6.9 percent, combined with moderate first-quarter GDP growth, continue to signal excess capacity in the economy. Headline CPI rose to 2.4 percent in March on higher energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures remained near 2.2 percent with limited broad pass-through. Traders view the current policy stance as appropriate absent persistent inflationary pressures. The May 19 CPI release and subsequent data represent the primary catalysts that could realistically shift sentiment toward an increase if they reveal sustained upside risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoBank of Canada decision in June?
Bank of Canada decision in June?
No change 96.6%
Increase 2.5%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,662 Vol.
$26,662 Vol.
10 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
Increase
2%
No change 96.6%
Increase 2.5%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$26,662 Vol.
$26,662 Vol.
10 jun 2026
50+ bps decrease
$4,584 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$4,363 Vol.
1%
No change
$9,705 Vol.
97%
Increase
$8,011 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25 percent following the April 29 meeting underpins the 96.7 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Softening labor-market conditions, including an April employment decline and unemployment near 6.9 percent, combined with moderate first-quarter GDP growth, continue to signal excess capacity in the economy. Headline CPI rose to 2.4 percent in March on higher energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures remained near 2.2 percent with limited broad pass-through. Traders view the current policy stance as appropriate absent persistent inflationary pressures. The May 19 CPI release and subsequent data represent the primary catalysts that could realistically shift sentiment toward an increase if they reveal sustained upside risks.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Volumen
$26,662Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25 percent following the April 29 meeting underpins the 96.7 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Softening labor-market conditions, including an April employment decline and unemployment near 6.9 percent, combined with moderate first-quarter GDP growth, continue to signal excess capacity in the economy. Headline CPI rose to 2.4 percent in March on higher energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures remained near 2.2 percent with limited broad pass-through. Traders view the current policy stance as appropriate absent persistent inflationary pressures. The May 19 CPI release and subsequent data represent the primary catalysts that could realistically shift sentiment toward an increase if they reveal sustained upside risks.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$26,662Fecha de finalización
10 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.25 percent following the April 29 meeting underpins the 96.7 percent market-implied probability of no change at the June 10 announcement. Softening labor-market conditions, including an April employment decline and unemployment near 6.9 percent, combined with moderate first-quarter GDP growth, continue to signal excess capacity in the economy. Headline CPI rose to 2.4 percent in March on higher energy prices tied to Middle East developments, while core measures remained near 2.2 percent with limited broad pass-through. Traders view the current policy stance as appropriate absent persistent inflationary pressures. The May 19 CPI release and subsequent data represent the primary catalysts that could realistically shift sentiment toward an increase if they reveal sustained upside risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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