Ciro Gomes (PSDB) leads recent polling averages for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote in Ceará’s gubernatorial election, with support near 47% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at around 40%, a gap that has narrowed from earlier double-digit margins. Datafolha and Paraná Pesquisas surveys from mid-September show Ciro’s advantage shrinking amid active campaigning, including motociatas and regional events, while minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio register negligible shares. Elmano’s approval ratings hover near 56%, yet rejection levels remain higher than Ciro’s, and second-round simulations indicate a tighter contest. Traders price Ciro as the frontrunner at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting polling momentum tempered by the short remaining timeline and potential late shifts in turnout or alliances.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 57%
Elmano de Freitas 42%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Capitão Wagner <1%
$250,034 Vol.
$250,034 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Ciro Gomes
57%
Elmano de Freitas
42%
Eduardo Girão
<1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Ciro Gomes 57%
Elmano de Freitas 42%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Capitão Wagner <1%
$250,034 Vol.
$250,034 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Ciro Gomes
$116,472 Vol.
57%
Elmano de Freitas
$62,682 Vol.
42%
Eduardo Girão
$18,393 Vol.
<1%
Capitão Wagner
$18,039 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$18,024 Vol.
<1%
Camilo Santana
$16,424 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes (PSDB) leads recent polling averages for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote in Ceará’s gubernatorial election, with support near 47% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at around 40%, a gap that has narrowed from earlier double-digit margins. Datafolha and Paraná Pesquisas surveys from mid-September show Ciro’s advantage shrinking amid active campaigning, including motociatas and regional events, while minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio register negligible shares. Elmano’s approval ratings hover near 56%, yet rejection levels remain higher than Ciro’s, and second-round simulations indicate a tighter contest. Traders price Ciro as the frontrunner at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting polling momentum tempered by the short remaining timeline and potential late shifts in turnout or alliances.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$250,034Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes (PSDB) leads recent polling averages for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote in Ceará’s gubernatorial election, with support near 47% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at around 40%, a gap that has narrowed from earlier double-digit margins. Datafolha and Paraná Pesquisas surveys from mid-September show Ciro’s advantage shrinking amid active campaigning, including motociatas and regional events, while minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio register negligible shares. Elmano’s approval ratings hover near 56%, yet rejection levels remain higher than Ciro’s, and second-round simulations indicate a tighter contest. Traders price Ciro as the frontrunner at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting polling momentum tempered by the short remaining timeline and potential late shifts in turnout or alliances.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$250,034Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes (PSDB) leads recent polling averages for the October 4, 2026, first-round vote in Ceará’s gubernatorial election, with support near 47% against incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) at around 40%, a gap that has narrowed from earlier double-digit margins. Datafolha and Paraná Pesquisas surveys from mid-September show Ciro’s advantage shrinking amid active campaigning, including motociatas and regional events, while minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, and Roberto Cláudio register negligible shares. Elmano’s approval ratings hover near 56%, yet rejection levels remain higher than Ciro’s, and second-round simulations indicate a tighter contest. Traders price Ciro as the frontrunner at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting polling momentum tempered by the short remaining timeline and potential late shifts in turnout or alliances.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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