**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom is widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point Selic cut at its September 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds at 83% for that outcome versus 15% for no change.** Following the unanimous 25 bp reduction to 14.00% on August 5—the fourth consecutive easing move—recent data showing slower inflation (mid-July reading at 4.5% y/y) and a moderating economy have reinforced the case for continued gradual easing. The BCB lowered its 2026 inflation projection to 5.1% while keeping the 18-month policy-horizon forecast at 3.2%, above the 3% target, amid still-elevated Focus survey expectations near 5.3% for 2026. Analyst surveys and trader positioning reflect this measured pace, balancing resilient labor-market conditions and domestic demand against cooling activity and contained price pressures. The committee’s post-meeting statement emphasized data dependence without closing the door on further reductions, keeping a 25 bp move in September the consensus baseline while leaving room for pause if incoming releases shift the risk balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps decrease 83.9%
No Change 12%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
50+ bps increase <1%
$91,006 Vol.
$91,006 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
<1%
No Change
12%
25 bps decrease
84%
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease 83.9%
No Change 12%
50+ bps decrease 2.5%
50+ bps increase <1%
$91,006 Vol.
$91,006 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
50+ bps increase
$5,154 Vol.
<1%
25 bps increase
$5,863 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$31,578 Vol.
12%
25 bps decrease
$39,515 Vol.
84%
50+ bps decrease
$8,896 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom is widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point Selic cut at its September 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds at 83% for that outcome versus 15% for no change.**
Following the unanimous 25 bp reduction to 14.00% on August 5—the fourth consecutive easing move—recent data showing slower inflation (mid-July reading at 4.5% y/y) and a moderating economy have reinforced the case for continued gradual easing. The BCB lowered its 2026 inflation projection to 5.1% while keeping the 18-month policy-horizon forecast at 3.2%, above the 3% target, amid still-elevated Focus survey expectations near 5.3% for 2026.
Analyst surveys and trader positioning reflect this measured pace, balancing resilient labor-market conditions and domestic demand against cooling activity and contained price pressures. The committee’s post-meeting statement emphasized data dependence without closing the door on further reductions, keeping a 25 bp move in September the consensus baseline while leaving room for pause if incoming releases shift the risk balance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Volume
$91,006End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom is widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point Selic cut at its September 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds at 83% for that outcome versus 15% for no change.**
Following the unanimous 25 bp reduction to 14.00% on August 5—the fourth consecutive easing move—recent data showing slower inflation (mid-July reading at 4.5% y/y) and a moderating economy have reinforced the case for continued gradual easing. The BCB lowered its 2026 inflation projection to 5.1% while keeping the 18-month policy-horizon forecast at 3.2%, above the 3% target, amid still-elevated Focus survey expectations near 5.3% for 2026.
Analyst surveys and trader positioning reflect this measured pace, balancing resilient labor-market conditions and domestic demand against cooling activity and contained price pressures. The committee’s post-meeting statement emphasized data dependence without closing the door on further reductions, keeping a 25 bp move in September the consensus baseline while leaving room for pause if incoming releases shift the risk balance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$91,006End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom is widely expected to deliver another 25 basis point Selic cut at its September 2026 meeting, with market-implied odds at 83% for that outcome versus 15% for no change.** Following the unanimous 25 bp reduction to 14.00% on August 5—the fourth consecutive easing move—recent data showing slower inflation (mid-July reading at 4.5% y/y) and a moderating economy have reinforced the case for continued gradual easing. The BCB lowered its 2026 inflation projection to 5.1% while keeping the 18-month policy-horizon forecast at 3.2%, above the 3% target, amid still-elevated Focus survey expectations near 5.3% for 2026. Analyst surveys and trader positioning reflect this measured pace, balancing resilient labor-market conditions and domestic demand against cooling activity and contained price pressures. The committee’s post-meeting statement emphasized data dependence without closing the door on further reductions, keeping a 25 bp move in September the consensus baseline while leaving room for pause if incoming releases shift the risk balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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