Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a $60 billion to $70 billion closing market cap for Cerebras Systems' IPO at 46% implied probability, reflecting strong momentum from the company's May 11, 2026, upsizing of IPO terms to 30 million shares at $150–$160 each—potentially raising $4.8 billion at a fully diluted $48.8 billion valuation—amid 20x oversubscription driven by AI chip demand. This positions the $60B–$70B bin as leader due to anticipated first-day trading pop, fueled by 76% revenue growth to $510 million in 2025, GAAP profitability, a $20 billion OpenAI compute deal, and Amazon Web Services partnership, outpacing initial S-1 filings targeting $23–$27 billion. Pricing guidance exceeds the range, with Nasdaq debut under CBRS expected May 14; lower bins reflect execution risks in a frothy AI sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$60B–$70B 46%
$70B–$80B 18%
$50B–$60B 15%
$80B–$90B 11.4%
NEW
$85,293 Vol.
NEW
$85,293 Vol.
May 14, 2026
<$50B
7%
$50B–$60B
15%
$60B–$70B
46%
$70B–$80B
18%
$80B–$90B
11%
$90B–$100B
8%
$100B+
4%
No IPO before July 2026
<1%
$60B–$70B 46%
$70B–$80B 18%
$50B–$60B 15%
$80B–$90B 11.4%
NEW
$85,293 Vol.
NEW
$85,293 Vol.
May 14, 2026
<$50B
$26,926 Vol.
7%
$50B–$60B
$12,647 Vol.
15%
$60B–$70B
$8,409 Vol.
46%
$70B–$80B
$7,307 Vol.
18%
$80B–$90B
$3,540 Vol.
11%
$90B–$100B
$8,235 Vol.
8%
$100B+
$8,231 Vol.
4%
No IPO before July 2026
$9,999 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on Cerebras Systems' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 14 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a $60 billion to $70 billion closing market cap for Cerebras Systems' IPO at 46% implied probability, reflecting strong momentum from the company's May 11, 2026, upsizing of IPO terms to 30 million shares at $150–$160 each—potentially raising $4.8 billion at a fully diluted $48.8 billion valuation—amid 20x oversubscription driven by AI chip demand. This positions the $60B–$70B bin as leader due to anticipated first-day trading pop, fueled by 76% revenue growth to $510 million in 2025, GAAP profitability, a $20 billion OpenAI compute deal, and Amazon Web Services partnership, outpacing initial S-1 filings targeting $23–$27 billion. Pricing guidance exceeds the range, with Nasdaq debut under CBRS expected May 14; lower bins reflect execution risks in a frothy AI sector.
This market will resolve based on Cerebras Systems' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 14 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 14 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$85,293End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Cerebras Systems' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 14 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a $60 billion to $70 billion closing market cap for Cerebras Systems' IPO at 46% implied probability, reflecting strong momentum from the company's May 11, 2026, upsizing of IPO terms to 30 million shares at $150–$160 each—potentially raising $4.8 billion at a fully diluted $48.8 billion valuation—amid 20x oversubscription driven by AI chip demand. This positions the $60B–$70B bin as leader due to anticipated first-day trading pop, fueled by 76% revenue growth to $510 million in 2025, GAAP profitability, a $20 billion OpenAI compute deal, and Amazon Web Services partnership, outpacing initial S-1 filings targeting $23–$27 billion. Pricing guidance exceeds the range, with Nasdaq debut under CBRS expected May 14; lower bins reflect execution risks in a frothy AI sector.
This market will resolve based on Cerebras Systems' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 14 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 14 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$85,293End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a $60 billion to $70 billion closing market cap for Cerebras Systems' IPO at 46% implied probability, reflecting strong momentum from the company's May 11, 2026, upsizing of IPO terms to 30 million shares at $150–$160 each—potentially raising $4.8 billion at a fully diluted $48.8 billion valuation—amid 20x oversubscription driven by AI chip demand. This positions the $60B–$70B bin as leader due to anticipated first-day trading pop, fueled by 76% revenue growth to $510 million in 2025, GAAP profitability, a $20 billion OpenAI compute deal, and Amazon Web Services partnership, outpacing initial S-1 filings targeting $23–$27 billion. Pricing guidance exceeds the range, with Nasdaq debut under CBRS expected May 14; lower bins reflect execution risks in a frothy AI sector.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions