Discord's January 2026 confidential SEC filing with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan as lead underwriters remains the central catalyst supporting IPO expectations, yet Polymarket traders assign 79.5% probability to no closing by June 30 amid secondary-market valuations hovering near $7–8 billion. Revenue growth to roughly $600–725 million supports modest expansion, but monetization challenges and a cooling tech IPO environment have compressed implied multiples below the 2021 $15 billion private round. Upcoming earnings visibility and broader equity-market conditions through mid-year will determine whether sentiment shifts toward the low-single-digit probabilities now priced for valuations above $15 billion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 80%
<15B 5.3%
25–30B 3.8%
15–20B 3.6%
$893,958 Vol.
$893,958 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<15B
5%
15–20B
4%
20–25B
1%
25–30B
4%
30B+
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
80%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 80%
<15B 5.3%
25–30B 3.8%
15–20B 3.6%
$893,958 Vol.
$893,958 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<15B
$298,539 Vol.
5%
15–20B
$109,468 Vol.
4%
20–25B
$74,744 Vol.
1%
25–30B
$114,056 Vol.
4%
30B+
$102,720 Vol.
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$194,431 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Discord's January 2026 confidential SEC filing with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan as lead underwriters remains the central catalyst supporting IPO expectations, yet Polymarket traders assign 79.5% probability to no closing by June 30 amid secondary-market valuations hovering near $7–8 billion. Revenue growth to roughly $600–725 million supports modest expansion, but monetization challenges and a cooling tech IPO environment have compressed implied multiples below the 2021 $15 billion private round. Upcoming earnings visibility and broader equity-market conditions through mid-year will determine whether sentiment shifts toward the low-single-digit probabilities now priced for valuations above $15 billion.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$893,958End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Discord's January 2026 confidential SEC filing with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan as lead underwriters remains the central catalyst supporting IPO expectations, yet Polymarket traders assign 79.5% probability to no closing by June 30 amid secondary-market valuations hovering near $7–8 billion. Revenue growth to roughly $600–725 million supports modest expansion, but monetization challenges and a cooling tech IPO environment have compressed implied multiples below the 2021 $15 billion private round. Upcoming earnings visibility and broader equity-market conditions through mid-year will determine whether sentiment shifts toward the low-single-digit probabilities now priced for valuations above $15 billion.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$893,958End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Discord's January 2026 confidential SEC filing with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan as lead underwriters remains the central catalyst supporting IPO expectations, yet Polymarket traders assign 79.5% probability to no closing by June 30 amid secondary-market valuations hovering near $7–8 billion. Revenue growth to roughly $600–725 million supports modest expansion, but monetization challenges and a cooling tech IPO environment have compressed implied multiples below the 2021 $15 billion private round. Upcoming earnings visibility and broader equity-market conditions through mid-year will determine whether sentiment shifts toward the low-single-digit probabilities now priced for valuations above $15 billion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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