Market participants price in a 97.8% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady across the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Pause–Pause–Pause outcome. This positioning arises from recent inflation readings that remain above the 2% target alongside resilient labor-market data, which have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance and reduced the scope for near-term cuts. Treasury yields and forward curves have aligned with this view, as traders see limited scope for policy easing without clearer disinflationary signals. Key upcoming releases on consumer prices and employment will serve as primary catalysts that could test the current consensus, though any shift would require a material deterioration in growth or inflation trajectory to alter the market-implied path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 98.0%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.6%
Other <1%
$1,103,416 Vol.
$1,103,416 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
98%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Other
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 98.0%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.6%
Other <1%
$1,103,416 Vol.
$1,103,416 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$63,257 Vol.
98%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$42,231 Vol.
2%
Other
$252,677 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket participants price in a 97.8% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady across the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Pause–Pause–Pause outcome. This positioning arises from recent inflation readings that remain above the 2% target alongside resilient labor-market data, which have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance and reduced the scope for near-term cuts. Treasury yields and forward curves have aligned with this view, as traders see limited scope for policy easing without clearer disinflationary signals. Key upcoming releases on consumer prices and employment will serve as primary catalysts that could test the current consensus, though any shift would require a material deterioration in growth or inflation trajectory to alter the market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,103,416End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket participants price in a 97.8% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady across the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Pause–Pause–Pause outcome. This positioning arises from recent inflation readings that remain above the 2% target alongside resilient labor-market data, which have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance and reduced the scope for near-term cuts. Treasury yields and forward curves have aligned with this view, as traders see limited scope for policy easing without clearer disinflationary signals. Key upcoming releases on consumer prices and employment will serve as primary catalysts that could test the current consensus, though any shift would require a material deterioration in growth or inflation trajectory to alter the market-implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,103,416End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Market participants price in a 97.8% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady across the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Pause–Pause–Pause outcome. This positioning arises from recent inflation readings that remain above the 2% target alongside resilient labor-market data, which have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance and reduced the scope for near-term cuts. Treasury yields and forward curves have aligned with this view, as traders see limited scope for policy easing without clearer disinflationary signals. Key upcoming releases on consumer prices and employment will serve as primary catalysts that could test the current consensus, though any shift would require a material deterioration in growth or inflation trajectory to alter the market-implied path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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