Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including March core PCE at 3.2% year-over-year and subsequent CPI prints, combined with energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase before year-end, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly 37% odds of a hike by December. Despite these pressures and resilient labor market readings, the 68.5% implied probability of no rate hike in 2026 reflects the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, the March dot plot’s median projection for one cut later in the year, and policymakers’ emphasis on data dependence rather than immediate tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and May inflation releases, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment concerns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,100,836 Vol.
$1,100,836 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
$1,100,836 Vol.
$1,100,836 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including March core PCE at 3.2% year-over-year and subsequent CPI prints, combined with energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase before year-end, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly 37% odds of a hike by December. Despite these pressures and resilient labor market readings, the 68.5% implied probability of no rate hike in 2026 reflects the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, the March dot plot’s median projection for one cut later in the year, and policymakers’ emphasis on data dependence rather than immediate tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and May inflation releases, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment concerns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,100,836End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including March core PCE at 3.2% year-over-year and subsequent CPI prints, combined with energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase before year-end, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly 37% odds of a hike by December. Despite these pressures and resilient labor market readings, the 68.5% implied probability of no rate hike in 2026 reflects the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, the March dot plot’s median projection for one cut later in the year, and policymakers’ emphasis on data dependence rather than immediate tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and May inflation releases, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment concerns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,100,836End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data, including March core PCE at 3.2% year-over-year and subsequent CPI prints, combined with energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, have shifted market-implied odds toward a possible Federal Reserve rate increase before year-end, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly 37% odds of a hike by December. Despite these pressures and resilient labor market readings, the 68.5% implied probability of no rate hike in 2026 reflects the Fed’s April 29 decision to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, the March dot plot’s median projection for one cut later in the year, and policymakers’ emphasis on data dependence rather than immediate tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the June FOMC meeting and May inflation releases, which could further clarify whether upside inflation risks outweigh downside employment concerns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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