Latest National Weather Service model runs point to a high near 63°F at Chicago’s official O’Hare station on May 22, driven by a lingering cool air mass and northerly flow behind a recent frontal passage. Ensemble guidance shows modest warming potential from daytime mixing and partial sunshine, yet persistent cloud cover and a breeze could cap readings in the low-to-mid 60s. This places the most likely outcome near the 64–66°F range, consistent with the market’s closely bunched probabilities around those bins. Historical climatology for late May shows a normal high of roughly 73°F, underscoring how this cooler pattern deviates from seasonal averages and leaves room for modest forecast adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on May 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 22?
64-65°F 30%
66°F or higher 30%
62-63°F 23%
60-61°F 10%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
5%
60-61°F
10%
62-63°F
23%
64-65°F
30%
66°F or higher
30%
64-65°F 30%
66°F or higher 30%
62-63°F 23%
60-61°F 10%
NEW
NEW
May 22, 2026
47°F or below
$930 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$79 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$79 Vol.
1%
52-53°F
$82 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$808 Vol.
2%
56-57°F
$291 Vol.
2%
58-59°F
$283 Vol.
5%
60-61°F
$308 Vol.
10%
62-63°F
$276 Vol.
23%
64-65°F
$248 Vol.
30%
66°F or higher
$419 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service model runs point to a high near 63°F at Chicago’s official O’Hare station on May 22, driven by a lingering cool air mass and northerly flow behind a recent frontal passage. Ensemble guidance shows modest warming potential from daytime mixing and partial sunshine, yet persistent cloud cover and a breeze could cap readings in the low-to-mid 60s. This places the most likely outcome near the 64–66°F range, consistent with the market’s closely bunched probabilities around those bins. Historical climatology for late May shows a normal high of roughly 73°F, underscoring how this cooler pattern deviates from seasonal averages and leaves room for modest forecast adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 20, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$3,804End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service model runs point to a high near 63°F at Chicago’s official O’Hare station on May 22, driven by a lingering cool air mass and northerly flow behind a recent frontal passage. Ensemble guidance shows modest warming potential from daytime mixing and partial sunshine, yet persistent cloud cover and a breeze could cap readings in the low-to-mid 60s. This places the most likely outcome near the 64–66°F range, consistent with the market’s closely bunched probabilities around those bins. Historical climatology for late May shows a normal high of roughly 73°F, underscoring how this cooler pattern deviates from seasonal averages and leaves room for modest forecast adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,804End Date
May 22, 2026Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service model runs point to a high near 63°F at Chicago’s official O’Hare station on May 22, driven by a lingering cool air mass and northerly flow behind a recent frontal passage. Ensemble guidance shows modest warming potential from daytime mixing and partial sunshine, yet persistent cloud cover and a breeze could cap readings in the low-to-mid 60s. This places the most likely outcome near the 64–66°F range, consistent with the market’s closely bunched probabilities around those bins. Historical climatology for late May shows a normal high of roughly 73°F, underscoring how this cooler pattern deviates from seasonal averages and leaves room for modest forecast adjustments before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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