**Latest numerical weather prediction runs show Istanbul under persistent northeasterly flow and high pressure on September 2, limiting daytime heating and keeping the daily maximum in the narrow 26–28 °C range.** Model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional ensembles peaks near 27–28 °C during afternoon hours, with light-to-moderate winds (5–8 m/s) off the Black Sea and minimal cloud cover allowing some radiational warming but also advecting cooler maritime air. Historical September climatology for the city averages 27–28 °C, yet recent model adjustments have trimmed the upper end by 1–2 °C relative to earlier guidance, reflecting slightly stronger onshore flow. This tight spread between 26 °C and 27 °C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in peak timing, exact wind speed at observation sites, and microscale variations between stations, which traders weigh against real-money resolution criteria. Updated model cycles and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings expected overnight will likely narrow the range further before the market closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 2?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 2?
26°C 50%
27°C 42%
28°C 6%
25°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
50%
27°C
42%
28°C
6%
29°C
2%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 50%
27°C 42%
28°C 6%
25°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
22°C or below
$246 Vol.
1%
23°C
$192 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$145 Vol.
1%
25°C
$225 Vol.
4%
26°C
$330 Vol.
50%
27°C
$582 Vol.
42%
28°C
$182 Vol.
6%
29°C
$87 Vol.
2%
30°C
$567 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$97 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$102 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction runs show Istanbul under persistent northeasterly flow and high pressure on September 2, limiting daytime heating and keeping the daily maximum in the narrow 26–28 °C range.** Model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional ensembles peaks near 27–28 °C during afternoon hours, with light-to-moderate winds (5–8 m/s) off the Black Sea and minimal cloud cover allowing some radiational warming but also advecting cooler maritime air. Historical September climatology for the city averages 27–28 °C, yet recent model adjustments have trimmed the upper end by 1–2 °C relative to earlier guidance, reflecting slightly stronger onshore flow. This tight spread between 26 °C and 27 °C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in peak timing, exact wind speed at observation sites, and microscale variations between stations, which traders weigh against real-money resolution criteria. Updated model cycles and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings expected overnight will likely narrow the range further before the market closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,753End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction runs show Istanbul under persistent northeasterly flow and high pressure on September 2, limiting daytime heating and keeping the daily maximum in the narrow 26–28 °C range.** Model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional ensembles peaks near 27–28 °C during afternoon hours, with light-to-moderate winds (5–8 m/s) off the Black Sea and minimal cloud cover allowing some radiational warming but also advecting cooler maritime air. Historical September climatology for the city averages 27–28 °C, yet recent model adjustments have trimmed the upper end by 1–2 °C relative to earlier guidance, reflecting slightly stronger onshore flow. This tight spread between 26 °C and 27 °C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in peak timing, exact wind speed at observation sites, and microscale variations between stations, which traders weigh against real-money resolution criteria. Updated model cycles and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings expected overnight will likely narrow the range further before the market closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,753End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest numerical weather prediction runs show Istanbul under persistent northeasterly flow and high pressure on September 2, limiting daytime heating and keeping the daily maximum in the narrow 26–28 °C range.** Model consensus from sources including ECMWF and regional ensembles peaks near 27–28 °C during afternoon hours, with light-to-moderate winds (5–8 m/s) off the Black Sea and minimal cloud cover allowing some radiational warming but also advecting cooler maritime air. Historical September climatology for the city averages 27–28 °C, yet recent model adjustments have trimmed the upper end by 1–2 °C relative to earlier guidance, reflecting slightly stronger onshore flow. This tight spread between 26 °C and 27 °C reflects genuine forecast uncertainty in peak timing, exact wind speed at observation sites, and microscale variations between stations, which traders weigh against real-money resolution criteria. Updated model cycles and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings expected overnight will likely narrow the range further before the market closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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