**Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Istanbul's overnight low on September 2 near 20–22°C, aligning with the market's leading outcomes (22°C at 61.5%, 20°C and 23°C near 50%).** Early September climatology in the region features a typical 8–10°C diurnal range under northeast flow, with radiative cooling overnight under mostly clear skies. Current model consensus (including GFS and ECMWF runs) shows no incoming fronts, minimal cloud cover, and light-to-moderate NE winds that limit extreme cooling while preventing heat retention. Official and aggregated forecasts indicate daytime highs of 28–30°C transitioning to nighttime minima of 20–22°C, with dew points supporting efficient but not excessive cooling. Traders have priced in this narrow band because recent observations and short-range guidance show no meaningful deviation from the pattern established over the past several days. Lower-probability outcomes (16°C or below at 11%, 26°C+ at 4%) reflect the low likelihood of anomalous advection or rapid clearing that would shift the minimum outside the forecast envelope. New model updates or unexpected wind shifts remain the primary variables that could adjust these implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 2?
25°C 73%
23°C 71%
16°C or below 70%
19°C 70%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
16°C or below
70%
17°C
5%
18°C
14%
19°C
70%
20°C
70%
21°C
44%
22°C
58%
23°C
71%
24°C
70%
25°C
73%
26°C or higher
9%
25°C 73%
23°C 71%
16°C or below 70%
19°C 70%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
16°C or below
$5 Vol.
70%
17°C
$57 Vol.
5%
18°C
$69 Vol.
14%
19°C
$0 Vol.
70%
20°C
$0 Vol.
70%
21°C
$0 Vol.
44%
22°C
$0 Vol.
58%
23°C
$0 Vol.
71%
24°C
$4 Vol.
70%
25°C
$5 Vol.
73%
26°C or higher
$5 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Istanbul's overnight low on September 2 near 20–22°C, aligning with the market's leading outcomes (22°C at 61.5%, 20°C and 23°C near 50%).**
Early September climatology in the region features a typical 8–10°C diurnal range under northeast flow, with radiative cooling overnight under mostly clear skies. Current model consensus (including GFS and ECMWF runs) shows no incoming fronts, minimal cloud cover, and light-to-moderate NE winds that limit extreme cooling while preventing heat retention. Official and aggregated forecasts indicate daytime highs of 28–30°C transitioning to nighttime minima of 20–22°C, with dew points supporting efficient but not excessive cooling.
Traders have priced in this narrow band because recent observations and short-range guidance show no meaningful deviation from the pattern established over the past several days. Lower-probability outcomes (16°C or below at 11%, 26°C+ at 4%) reflect the low likelihood of anomalous advection or rapid clearing that would shift the minimum outside the forecast envelope. New model updates or unexpected wind shifts remain the primary variables that could adjust these implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$145End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Istanbul's overnight low on September 2 near 20–22°C, aligning with the market's leading outcomes (22°C at 61.5%, 20°C and 23°C near 50%).**
Early September climatology in the region features a typical 8–10°C diurnal range under northeast flow, with radiative cooling overnight under mostly clear skies. Current model consensus (including GFS and ECMWF runs) shows no incoming fronts, minimal cloud cover, and light-to-moderate NE winds that limit extreme cooling while preventing heat retention. Official and aggregated forecasts indicate daytime highs of 28–30°C transitioning to nighttime minima of 20–22°C, with dew points supporting efficient but not excessive cooling.
Traders have priced in this narrow band because recent observations and short-range guidance show no meaningful deviation from the pattern established over the past several days. Lower-probability outcomes (16°C or below at 11%, 26°C+ at 4%) reflect the low likelihood of anomalous advection or rapid clearing that would shift the minimum outside the forecast envelope. New model updates or unexpected wind shifts remain the primary variables that could adjust these implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$145End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Stable high-pressure conditions and clear skies are positioning Istanbul's overnight low on September 2 near 20–22°C, aligning with the market's leading outcomes (22°C at 61.5%, 20°C and 23°C near 50%).** Early September climatology in the region features a typical 8–10°C diurnal range under northeast flow, with radiative cooling overnight under mostly clear skies. Current model consensus (including GFS and ECMWF runs) shows no incoming fronts, minimal cloud cover, and light-to-moderate NE winds that limit extreme cooling while preventing heat retention. Official and aggregated forecasts indicate daytime highs of 28–30°C transitioning to nighttime minima of 20–22°C, with dew points supporting efficient but not excessive cooling. Traders have priced in this narrow band because recent observations and short-range guidance show no meaningful deviation from the pattern established over the past several days. Lower-probability outcomes (16°C or below at 11%, 26°C+ at 4%) reflect the low likelihood of anomalous advection or rapid clearing that would shift the minimum outside the forecast envelope. New model updates or unexpected wind shifts remain the primary variables that could adjust these implied probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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