**Official forecasts from multiple meteorological services project a daytime high of 28–30°C in Jinan on September 20, 2026, under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow.** This aligns with the recent “autumn tiger” warming episode, during which regional highs reached 33°C in mid-September before a modest fluctuation. Multiple model runs and agency guidance (including Chinese meteorological sources) show strong consensus above 26°C, with minimal precipitation risk and daytime temperatures well above seasonal norms of roughly 24–27°C. The 99.9% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher therefore reflects near-certain alignment between current observations, short-range ensembles, and steering patterns. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted cold-air intrusion or major model revision, both considered highly improbable given the established circulation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jinan on September 20?
Highest temperature in Jinan on September 20?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$5,386 Vol.
$5,386 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
Yes
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$5,386 Vol.
$5,386 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
16°C or below
$1,865 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,131 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,131 Vol.
No
19°C
$31 Vol.
No
20°C
$16 Vol.
No
21°C
$16 Vol.
No
22°C
$16 Vol.
No
23°C
$16 Vol.
No
24°C
$16 Vol.
No
25°C
$721 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$427 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from multiple meteorological services project a daytime high of 28–30°C in Jinan on September 20, 2026, under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow.** This aligns with the recent “autumn tiger” warming episode, during which regional highs reached 33°C in mid-September before a modest fluctuation. Multiple model runs and agency guidance (including Chinese meteorological sources) show strong consensus above 26°C, with minimal precipitation risk and daytime temperatures well above seasonal norms of roughly 24–27°C. The 99.9% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher therefore reflects near-certain alignment between current observations, short-range ensembles, and steering patterns. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted cold-air intrusion or major model revision, both considered highly improbable given the established circulation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$5,386End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from multiple meteorological services project a daytime high of 28–30°C in Jinan on September 20, 2026, under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow.** This aligns with the recent “autumn tiger” warming episode, during which regional highs reached 33°C in mid-September before a modest fluctuation. Multiple model runs and agency guidance (including Chinese meteorological sources) show strong consensus above 26°C, with minimal precipitation risk and daytime temperatures well above seasonal norms of roughly 24–27°C. The 99.9% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher therefore reflects near-certain alignment between current observations, short-range ensembles, and steering patterns. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted cold-air intrusion or major model revision, both considered highly improbable given the established circulation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,386End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Official forecasts from multiple meteorological services project a daytime high of 28–30°C in Jinan on September 20, 2026, under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow.** This aligns with the recent “autumn tiger” warming episode, during which regional highs reached 33°C in mid-September before a modest fluctuation. Multiple model runs and agency guidance (including Chinese meteorological sources) show strong consensus above 26°C, with minimal precipitation risk and daytime temperatures well above seasonal norms of roughly 24–27°C. The 99.9% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher therefore reflects near-certain alignment between current observations, short-range ensembles, and steering patterns. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted cold-air intrusion or major model revision, both considered highly improbable given the established circulation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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