**Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and heavy cloud cover are the dominant factors capping maximum temperatures in Lucknow on September 2.** Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models such as those referenced by WeatherBug and others indicate widespread rain/thundershowers with an 80–90% probability, easterly to northeasterly winds of 6–9 mph, and high humidity (85–95%). These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping daytime highs near or slightly below seasonal norms. Recent observations reinforce this: Lucknow recorded a below-normal maximum of 31.8°C on August 31 amid similar convective activity, and September 1 showed comparable cloudiness with scattered thunderstorms. Model consensus points to peak readings clustered around 28–31°C (roughly 83–88°F), with 30°C and 31°C emerging as the most probable outcomes given the balance between residual monsoon moisture and modest warming potential if breaks in cloud cover occur. Higher thresholds (32°C+) carry low implied probability because sustained rainfall would further suppress heating, while lower values (≤28°C) remain possible only with unusually prolonged downpours. Traders appear to weigh the latest short-range guidance and climatological context—September averages near 32–33°C but frequently moderated by active monsoon phases—favoring the 30–31°C range as the highest-probability band ahead of final observations. Updated IMD briefings or new model runs on September 2 could still shift the distribution if steering patterns or intensity change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on September 2?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on September 2?
30°C 38%
31°C 30%
29°C 21%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
21%
30°C
38%
31°C
30%
32°C
7%
33°C or higher
2%
30°C 38%
31°C 30%
29°C 21%
28°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
23°C or below
$101 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$330 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$235 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$265 Vol.
1%
28°C
$530 Vol.
7%
29°C
$180 Vol.
21%
30°C
$270 Vol.
38%
31°C
$817 Vol.
30%
32°C
$220 Vol.
7%
33°C or higher
$225 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and heavy cloud cover are the dominant factors capping maximum temperatures in Lucknow on September 2.** Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models such as those referenced by WeatherBug and others indicate widespread rain/thundershowers with an 80–90% probability, easterly to northeasterly winds of 6–9 mph, and high humidity (85–95%). These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping daytime highs near or slightly below seasonal norms.
Recent observations reinforce this: Lucknow recorded a below-normal maximum of 31.8°C on August 31 amid similar convective activity, and September 1 showed comparable cloudiness with scattered thunderstorms. Model consensus points to peak readings clustered around 28–31°C (roughly 83–88°F), with 30°C and 31°C emerging as the most probable outcomes given the balance between residual monsoon moisture and modest warming potential if breaks in cloud cover occur. Higher thresholds (32°C+) carry low implied probability because sustained rainfall would further suppress heating, while lower values (≤28°C) remain possible only with unusually prolonged downpours.
Traders appear to weigh the latest short-range guidance and climatological context—September averages near 32–33°C but frequently moderated by active monsoon phases—favoring the 30–31°C range as the highest-probability band ahead of final observations. Updated IMD briefings or new model runs on September 2 could still shift the distribution if steering patterns or intensity change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,285End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and heavy cloud cover are the dominant factors capping maximum temperatures in Lucknow on September 2.** Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models such as those referenced by WeatherBug and others indicate widespread rain/thundershowers with an 80–90% probability, easterly to northeasterly winds of 6–9 mph, and high humidity (85–95%). These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping daytime highs near or slightly below seasonal norms.
Recent observations reinforce this: Lucknow recorded a below-normal maximum of 31.8°C on August 31 amid similar convective activity, and September 1 showed comparable cloudiness with scattered thunderstorms. Model consensus points to peak readings clustered around 28–31°C (roughly 83–88°F), with 30°C and 31°C emerging as the most probable outcomes given the balance between residual monsoon moisture and modest warming potential if breaks in cloud cover occur. Higher thresholds (32°C+) carry low implied probability because sustained rainfall would further suppress heating, while lower values (≤28°C) remain possible only with unusually prolonged downpours.
Traders appear to weigh the latest short-range guidance and climatological context—September averages near 32–33°C but frequently moderated by active monsoon phases—favoring the 30–31°C range as the highest-probability band ahead of final observations. Updated IMD briefings or new model runs on September 2 could still shift the distribution if steering patterns or intensity change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,285End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent monsoon-driven thunderstorms and heavy cloud cover are the dominant factors capping maximum temperatures in Lucknow on September 2.** Official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department and models such as those referenced by WeatherBug and others indicate widespread rain/thundershowers with an 80–90% probability, easterly to northeasterly winds of 6–9 mph, and high humidity (85–95%). These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping daytime highs near or slightly below seasonal norms. Recent observations reinforce this: Lucknow recorded a below-normal maximum of 31.8°C on August 31 amid similar convective activity, and September 1 showed comparable cloudiness with scattered thunderstorms. Model consensus points to peak readings clustered around 28–31°C (roughly 83–88°F), with 30°C and 31°C emerging as the most probable outcomes given the balance between residual monsoon moisture and modest warming potential if breaks in cloud cover occur. Higher thresholds (32°C+) carry low implied probability because sustained rainfall would further suppress heating, while lower values (≤28°C) remain possible only with unusually prolonged downpours. Traders appear to weigh the latest short-range guidance and climatological context—September averages near 32–33°C but frequently moderated by active monsoon phases—favoring the 30–31°C range as the highest-probability band ahead of final observations. Updated IMD briefings or new model runs on September 2 could still shift the distribution if steering patterns or intensity change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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