Persistent southwest monsoon activity has driven cloud cover, frequent showers, and suppressed solar heating across Metro Manila, holding the day's maximum temperature near 28°C according to PAGASA and NOAA-aligned forecasts. This pattern aligns with typical wet-season climatology, where enhanced convection and moisture limit afternoon peaks below the 31–32°C August average. Market-implied odds at 100% for 28°C reflect trader assessment of real-time observational data and model consensus showing minimal deviation. Clearer skies or a temporary monsoon break could allow greater insolation and push readings higher, while stronger convective bursts might cap the high even lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 14?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 14?
28°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$59,926 Vol.
$59,926 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$59,926 Vol.
$59,926 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
$358 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,267 Vol.
No
27°C
$23,953 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,595 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$5,660 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,206 Vol.
No
31°C
$5,898 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,494 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,497 Vol.
No
34°C
$1,461 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$1,538 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity has driven cloud cover, frequent showers, and suppressed solar heating across Metro Manila, holding the day's maximum temperature near 28°C according to PAGASA and NOAA-aligned forecasts. This pattern aligns with typical wet-season climatology, where enhanced convection and moisture limit afternoon peaks below the 31–32°C August average. Market-implied odds at 100% for 28°C reflect trader assessment of real-time observational data and model consensus showing minimal deviation. Clearer skies or a temporary monsoon break could allow greater insolation and push readings higher, while stronger convective bursts might cap the high even lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$59,926End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity has driven cloud cover, frequent showers, and suppressed solar heating across Metro Manila, holding the day's maximum temperature near 28°C according to PAGASA and NOAA-aligned forecasts. This pattern aligns with typical wet-season climatology, where enhanced convection and moisture limit afternoon peaks below the 31–32°C August average. Market-implied odds at 100% for 28°C reflect trader assessment of real-time observational data and model consensus showing minimal deviation. Clearer skies or a temporary monsoon break could allow greater insolation and push readings higher, while stronger convective bursts might cap the high even lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$59,926End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Persistent southwest monsoon activity has driven cloud cover, frequent showers, and suppressed solar heating across Metro Manila, holding the day's maximum temperature near 28°C according to PAGASA and NOAA-aligned forecasts. This pattern aligns with typical wet-season climatology, where enhanced convection and moisture limit afternoon peaks below the 31–32°C August average. Market-implied odds at 100% for 28°C reflect trader assessment of real-time observational data and model consensus showing minimal deviation. Clearer skies or a temporary monsoon break could allow greater insolation and push readings higher, while stronger convective bursts might cap the high even lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions