Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS runs supports a maximum temperature of 24–25°C in Milan on September 24, driven by a stable high-pressure regime with light westerly to southwesterly winds, partial cloud cover limiting daytime heating, and seasonal solar angles typical of late September. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring those two outcomes at 41% and 33.5%, respectively, while lower odds for 26°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or reduced cloudiness. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing creates the close contest between 24°C and 25°C, with final resolution hinging on the next 48-hour observational updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 24?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 24?
25°C 41%
24°C 34%
26°C 32%
23°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
21°C or below
4%
22°C
14%
23°C
17%
24°C
34%
25°C
41%
26°C
32%
27°C
11%
28°C
14%
29°C
5%
30°C
4%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 41%
24°C 34%
26°C 32%
23°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
22°C
$0 Vol.
14%
23°C
$0 Vol.
17%
24°C
$0 Vol.
34%
25°C
$39 Vol.
41%
26°C
$0 Vol.
32%
27°C
$4 Vol.
11%
28°C
$5 Vol.
14%
29°C
$5 Vol.
5%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C or higher
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS runs supports a maximum temperature of 24–25°C in Milan on September 24, driven by a stable high-pressure regime with light westerly to southwesterly winds, partial cloud cover limiting daytime heating, and seasonal solar angles typical of late September. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring those two outcomes at 41% and 33.5%, respectively, while lower odds for 26°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or reduced cloudiness. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing creates the close contest between 24°C and 25°C, with final resolution hinging on the next 48-hour observational updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$152End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS runs supports a maximum temperature of 24–25°C in Milan on September 24, driven by a stable high-pressure regime with light westerly to southwesterly winds, partial cloud cover limiting daytime heating, and seasonal solar angles typical of late September. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring those two outcomes at 41% and 33.5%, respectively, while lower odds for 26°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or reduced cloudiness. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing creates the close contest between 24°C and 25°C, with final resolution hinging on the next 48-hour observational updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$152End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS runs supports a maximum temperature of 24–25°C in Milan on September 24, driven by a stable high-pressure regime with light westerly to southwesterly winds, partial cloud cover limiting daytime heating, and seasonal solar angles typical of late September. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring those two outcomes at 41% and 33.5%, respectively, while lower odds for 26°C or higher reflect limited potential for stronger insolation or reduced cloudiness. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing creates the close contest between 24°C and 25°C, with final resolution hinging on the next 48-hour observational updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions