Recent forecasts from European models indicate a minimum temperature for Milan on September 23 likely near 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, yet the balanced market odds reflect notable ensemble spread. ECMWF runs favor milder overnight conditions with limited radiative cooling, while GFS members introduce cooler scenarios from subtle eastern air intrusions near the autumnal equinox. Key variables include cloud cover reducing heat loss, wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and surface pressure gradients that could shift dew points or trigger localized cooling. Traders are pricing genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model updates, as small changes in overnight stability could push the low across multiple resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 23?
11°C or below 76%
21°C or higher 76%
16°C 24%
14°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
11°C or below
76%
12°C
14%
13°C
11%
14°C
23%
15°C
23%
16°C
24%
17°C
22%
18°C
20%
19°C
17%
20°C
12%
21°C or higher
76%
11°C or below 76%
21°C or higher 76%
16°C 24%
14°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
11°C or below
$100 Vol.
76%
12°C
$40 Vol.
14%
13°C
$0 Vol.
11%
14°C
$0 Vol.
23%
15°C
$0 Vol.
23%
16°C
$0 Vol.
24%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
20%
19°C
$25 Vol.
17%
20°C
$100 Vol.
12%
21°C or higher
$100 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from European models indicate a minimum temperature for Milan on September 23 likely near 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, yet the balanced market odds reflect notable ensemble spread. ECMWF runs favor milder overnight conditions with limited radiative cooling, while GFS members introduce cooler scenarios from subtle eastern air intrusions near the autumnal equinox. Key variables include cloud cover reducing heat loss, wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and surface pressure gradients that could shift dew points or trigger localized cooling. Traders are pricing genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model updates, as small changes in overnight stability could push the low across multiple resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$365End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from European models indicate a minimum temperature for Milan on September 23 likely near 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, yet the balanced market odds reflect notable ensemble spread. ECMWF runs favor milder overnight conditions with limited radiative cooling, while GFS members introduce cooler scenarios from subtle eastern air intrusions near the autumnal equinox. Key variables include cloud cover reducing heat loss, wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and surface pressure gradients that could shift dew points or trigger localized cooling. Traders are pricing genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model updates, as small changes in overnight stability could push the low across multiple resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$365End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from European models indicate a minimum temperature for Milan on September 23 likely near 16–18°C under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, yet the balanced market odds reflect notable ensemble spread. ECMWF runs favor milder overnight conditions with limited radiative cooling, while GFS members introduce cooler scenarios from subtle eastern air intrusions near the autumnal equinox. Key variables include cloud cover reducing heat loss, wind speeds modulating boundary-layer mixing, and surface pressure gradients that could shift dew points or trigger localized cooling. Traders are pricing genuine forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model updates, as small changes in overnight stability could push the low across multiple resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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