Official forecasts from Météo-France and supporting ensemble guidance from the Met Office and BBC models converge on a daytime maximum of 28–30°C for Paris on August 17, 2026, under partly sunny skies, light northerly flow, and reduced humidity following the mid-month heatwave that produced peaks of 33–38°C. This tight clustering around the August climatological range of 24–29°C underpins the market’s 91% implied probability on 29°C as the peak reading. Real-time observations through midday already track near 26–28°C, with limited further rise expected before cooling begins. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected model shift or localized urban heat effects pushing the official high to 30°C or above, though current data and steering patterns make that outcome low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 17?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 17?
29°C 92%
30°C 5%
31°C <1%
24°C or below <1%
$72,384 Vol.
$72,384 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
92%
30°C
5%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 92%
30°C 5%
31°C <1%
24°C or below <1%
$72,384 Vol.
$72,384 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
$334 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,519 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$3,938 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$9,865 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$21,484 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$15,312 Vol.
92%
30°C
$9,837 Vol.
5%
31°C
$5,947 Vol.
1%
32°C
$2,778 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$557 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$813 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Météo-France and supporting ensemble guidance from the Met Office and BBC models converge on a daytime maximum of 28–30°C for Paris on August 17, 2026, under partly sunny skies, light northerly flow, and reduced humidity following the mid-month heatwave that produced peaks of 33–38°C. This tight clustering around the August climatological range of 24–29°C underpins the market’s 91% implied probability on 29°C as the peak reading. Real-time observations through midday already track near 26–28°C, with limited further rise expected before cooling begins. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected model shift or localized urban heat effects pushing the official high to 30°C or above, though current data and steering patterns make that outcome low-probability.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Volume
$72,384End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Météo-France and supporting ensemble guidance from the Met Office and BBC models converge on a daytime maximum of 28–30°C for Paris on August 17, 2026, under partly sunny skies, light northerly flow, and reduced humidity following the mid-month heatwave that produced peaks of 33–38°C. This tight clustering around the August climatological range of 24–29°C underpins the market’s 91% implied probability on 29°C as the peak reading. Real-time observations through midday already track near 26–28°C, with limited further rise expected before cooling begins. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected model shift or localized urban heat effects pushing the official high to 30°C or above, though current data and steering patterns make that outcome low-probability.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$72,384End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Météo-France and supporting ensemble guidance from the Met Office and BBC models converge on a daytime maximum of 28–30°C for Paris on August 17, 2026, under partly sunny skies, light northerly flow, and reduced humidity following the mid-month heatwave that produced peaks of 33–38°C. This tight clustering around the August climatological range of 24–29°C underpins the market’s 91% implied probability on 29°C as the peak reading. Real-time observations through midday already track near 26–28°C, with limited further rise expected before cooling begins. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected model shift or localized urban heat effects pushing the official high to 30°C or above, though current data and steering patterns make that outcome low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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