Strong model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles supports the market's near-certainty in a 32°C high for Qingdao on August 17, driven by persistent high pressure, light southerly flow, and intense midsummer insolation over the Yellow Sea coastal plain. Official short-range forecasts consistently project daytime maxima of 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F), aligning with historical August averages near 29–30°C while current conditions limit significant deviation. Trader positioning reflects this tight clustering of guidance, with real-capital stakes rewarding accurate assessment of observational thresholds. A realistic challenge would require unexpected fog, strengthened northeasterly winds, or rapid cloud cover reducing insolation enough to cap the recorded high below 32°C, or conversely, clearer skies pushing observations to 33°C or higher before official verification closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 17?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 17?
32°C 99.8%
33°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
NEW
$27,684 Vol.
NEW
$27,684 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 99.8%
33°C <1%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
NEW
$27,684 Vol.
NEW
$27,684 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
28°C or below
$611 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,089 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,422 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$3,705 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$4,351 Vol.
100%
33°C
$5,498 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$5,376 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,581 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$968 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$891 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$192 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles supports the market's near-certainty in a 32°C high for Qingdao on August 17, driven by persistent high pressure, light southerly flow, and intense midsummer insolation over the Yellow Sea coastal plain. Official short-range forecasts consistently project daytime maxima of 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F), aligning with historical August averages near 29–30°C while current conditions limit significant deviation. Trader positioning reflects this tight clustering of guidance, with real-capital stakes rewarding accurate assessment of observational thresholds. A realistic challenge would require unexpected fog, strengthened northeasterly winds, or rapid cloud cover reducing insolation enough to cap the recorded high below 32°C, or conversely, clearer skies pushing observations to 33°C or higher before official verification closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:08 PM ET
Volume
$27,684End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:08 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles supports the market's near-certainty in a 32°C high for Qingdao on August 17, driven by persistent high pressure, light southerly flow, and intense midsummer insolation over the Yellow Sea coastal plain. Official short-range forecasts consistently project daytime maxima of 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F), aligning with historical August averages near 29–30°C while current conditions limit significant deviation. Trader positioning reflects this tight clustering of guidance, with real-capital stakes rewarding accurate assessment of observational thresholds. A realistic challenge would require unexpected fog, strengthened northeasterly winds, or rapid cloud cover reducing insolation enough to cap the recorded high below 32°C, or conversely, clearer skies pushing observations to 33°C or higher before official verification closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,684End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:08 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles supports the market's near-certainty in a 32°C high for Qingdao on August 17, driven by persistent high pressure, light southerly flow, and intense midsummer insolation over the Yellow Sea coastal plain. Official short-range forecasts consistently project daytime maxima of 31–32°C (roughly 88–90°F), aligning with historical August averages near 29–30°C while current conditions limit significant deviation. Trader positioning reflects this tight clustering of guidance, with real-capital stakes rewarding accurate assessment of observational thresholds. A realistic challenge would require unexpected fog, strengthened northeasterly winds, or rapid cloud cover reducing insolation enough to cap the recorded high below 32°C, or conversely, clearer skies pushing observations to 33°C or higher before official verification closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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