Current forecast models from sources like the ECMWF and GFS indicate clear skies, light northwesterly winds, and high pressure over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting afternoon highs near 32–34°C in Tel Aviv on September 17. This consensus underpins the near-even market-implied odds for 34°C versus 35°C. Subtle differences between these outcomes hinge on peak solar insolation, minor humidity fluctuations around 50–60%, and exact timing of maximum heating under stable conditions, where even small model divergences in boundary-layer mixing or wind gusts can shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Historical September averages near 29°C provide baseline context, but recent runs show a warmer anomaly without significant cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation. Updated model guidance ahead of the date will likely refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 17?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 17?
34°C 47%
35°C 44%
33°C 12%
36°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
30°C or below
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
12%
34°C
47%
35°C
44%
36°C
6%
37°C
2%
38°C
2%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
34°C 47%
35°C 44%
33°C 12%
36°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
30°C or below
$71 Vol.
1%
31°C
$310 Vol.
1%
32°C
$0 Vol.
3%
33°C
$130 Vol.
12%
34°C
$501 Vol.
47%
35°C
$219 Vol.
44%
36°C
$0 Vol.
6%
37°C
$0 Vol.
2%
38°C
$152 Vol.
2%
39°C
$91 Vol.
1%
40°C or higher
$291 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like the ECMWF and GFS indicate clear skies, light northwesterly winds, and high pressure over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting afternoon highs near 32–34°C in Tel Aviv on September 17. This consensus underpins the near-even market-implied odds for 34°C versus 35°C. Subtle differences between these outcomes hinge on peak solar insolation, minor humidity fluctuations around 50–60%, and exact timing of maximum heating under stable conditions, where even small model divergences in boundary-layer mixing or wind gusts can shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Historical September averages near 29°C provide baseline context, but recent runs show a warmer anomaly without significant cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation. Updated model guidance ahead of the date will likely refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,766End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like the ECMWF and GFS indicate clear skies, light northwesterly winds, and high pressure over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting afternoon highs near 32–34°C in Tel Aviv on September 17. This consensus underpins the near-even market-implied odds for 34°C versus 35°C. Subtle differences between these outcomes hinge on peak solar insolation, minor humidity fluctuations around 50–60%, and exact timing of maximum heating under stable conditions, where even small model divergences in boundary-layer mixing or wind gusts can shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Historical September averages near 29°C provide baseline context, but recent runs show a warmer anomaly without significant cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation. Updated model guidance ahead of the date will likely refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,766End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources like the ECMWF and GFS indicate clear skies, light northwesterly winds, and high pressure over the eastern Mediterranean, supporting afternoon highs near 32–34°C in Tel Aviv on September 17. This consensus underpins the near-even market-implied odds for 34°C versus 35°C. Subtle differences between these outcomes hinge on peak solar insolation, minor humidity fluctuations around 50–60%, and exact timing of maximum heating under stable conditions, where even small model divergences in boundary-layer mixing or wind gusts can shift the daily maximum by 1°C. Historical September averages near 29°C provide baseline context, but recent runs show a warmer anomaly without significant cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation. Updated model guidance ahead of the date will likely refine the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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