Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicates a high near 28°C in Tokyo on September 24 under mostly cloudy skies with northeasterly flow and elevated humidity, limiting surface heating compared with clearer conditions earlier in the week. Afternoon scattered showers or thunderstorms could cap temperatures further in some scenarios, while any temporary breaks in cloud cover might allow brief warming toward 29°C. This places the outcome modestly above the late-September climatological normal of roughly 25–26°C, consistent with broader seasonal warmth but tempered by the expected lack of strong insolation. Market-implied odds align with these model runs, though final resolution hinges on precise hourly observations and any last adjustments in steering patterns or convective timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 24?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 24?
28°C 43%
27°C 25%
29°C 19%
31°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
23°C or below
4%
24°C
4%
25°C
10%
26°C
13%
27°C
25%
28°C
43%
29°C
19%
30°C
13%
31°C
14%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 43%
27°C 25%
29°C 19%
31°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C
$4 Vol.
10%
26°C
$0 Vol.
13%
27°C
$0 Vol.
25%
28°C
$40 Vol.
43%
29°C
$0 Vol.
19%
30°C
$5 Vol.
13%
31°C
$0 Vol.
14%
32°C
$0 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicates a high near 28°C in Tokyo on September 24 under mostly cloudy skies with northeasterly flow and elevated humidity, limiting surface heating compared with clearer conditions earlier in the week. Afternoon scattered showers or thunderstorms could cap temperatures further in some scenarios, while any temporary breaks in cloud cover might allow brief warming toward 29°C. This places the outcome modestly above the late-September climatological normal of roughly 25–26°C, consistent with broader seasonal warmth but tempered by the expected lack of strong insolation. Market-implied odds align with these model runs, though final resolution hinges on precise hourly observations and any last adjustments in steering patterns or convective timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$64End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicates a high near 28°C in Tokyo on September 24 under mostly cloudy skies with northeasterly flow and elevated humidity, limiting surface heating compared with clearer conditions earlier in the week. Afternoon scattered showers or thunderstorms could cap temperatures further in some scenarios, while any temporary breaks in cloud cover might allow brief warming toward 29°C. This places the outcome modestly above the late-September climatological normal of roughly 25–26°C, consistent with broader seasonal warmth but tempered by the expected lack of strong insolation. Market-implied odds align with these model runs, though final resolution hinges on precise hourly observations and any last adjustments in steering patterns or convective timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$64End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicates a high near 28°C in Tokyo on September 24 under mostly cloudy skies with northeasterly flow and elevated humidity, limiting surface heating compared with clearer conditions earlier in the week. Afternoon scattered showers or thunderstorms could cap temperatures further in some scenarios, while any temporary breaks in cloud cover might allow brief warming toward 29°C. This places the outcome modestly above the late-September climatological normal of roughly 25–26°C, consistent with broader seasonal warmth but tempered by the expected lack of strong insolation. Market-implied odds align with these model runs, though final resolution hinges on precise hourly observations and any last adjustments in steering patterns or convective timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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