April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023 and up from 3.3% in March—driven by 0.6% monthly gains and energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, while today's Producer Price Index revealed a 1.4% monthly jump, the largest since 2022. Core CPI rose 2.8% YoY, signaling broad pressures beyond volatiles, as robust labor markets and fiscal stimulus sustain demand. The Federal Reserve's April FOMC held rates steady but lifted its median 2026 PCE inflation projection to 2.7% from 2.4%, with officials like Goolsbee and Collins warning of potential hikes if trends persist. Polymarket trader consensus, backed by over $870,000 in volume, prices elevated risks of peak CPI exceeding 4% this year; watch April PCE on May 30, May CPI on June 10, and June 16-17 FOMC for policy pivots.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedProducer
Above 4.5% plunges to 59%19%
The BLS reported a 6% annual rise in wholesale.
Bond yields hit 2026 highs as investors react to accelerating inflation data, increasing expectations of prolonged Federal Reserve rate hikes
Above 4.5% jumps to 64%5%
Rising inflation readings pushed Treasury yields higher, reflecting market anticipation of sustained Fed tightening, which supported the inflation-above-4.5% outcome as traders.
President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing for talks with China amid inflation concerns and ongoing Iran war uncertainties
Above 4.5% dips to 62%2%
The geopolitical context, including Trump’s China visit and stalled peace prospects with Iran, maintained inflation risk premiums in markets, keeping the probability for inflation above 4.5% elevated despite some minor.
The Guardian and Fox Business report on April 2026 inflation jump to 3.8%, emphasizing the Iran war's impact on energy
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
The Guardian and Fox Business report on April 2026 inflation jump to 3.8%, emphasizing the Iran war's impact on energy
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April 2026 CPI report showing 3.8% annual inflation, highest in nearly three years, driven by energy costs surging 17.9% amid ongoing Iran
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April 2026 CPI report showing 3.8% annual inflation, highest in nearly three years, driven by energy costs surging 17.9% amid ongoing Iran war; core CPI also rises
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April 2026 CPI report showing 3.8% annual inflation, driven by energy costs from the Iran war, confirming inflation well below 10%,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April 2026 CPI report showing 3.8% annual inflation, driven by energy costs from the Iran war, confirming inflation well below 10%, keeping market
April 2026 CPI report released showing inflation at 3.8%, highest since 2023, driven by energy
Above 5% rises to 31%3%
April 2026 CPI report released showing inflation at 3.8%, highest since 2023, driven by energy
April 2026 CPI report shows inflation accelerating to 3.8% YoY, highest since May 2023, with energy costs (gasoline up 28.4% YoY) and shelter inflation boosted by one-time
Above 6% rises to 17%4%
April 2026 CPI report shows inflation accelerating to 3.8% YoY, highest since May 2023, with energy costs (gasoline up 28.4% YoY) and shelter inflation boosted by one-time adjustments related to 2025 government shutdown; market
April 2026 regional CPI reports confirm moderate inflation increases across regions, with energy and food
April 2026 regional CPI reports confirm moderate inflation increases across regions, with energy and food
U.S. Consumer
Above 4.5% jumps to 56%6%
The Labor Department reported a 3.8% annual increase in CPI for April, surpassing forecasts and signaling inflation pressures from energy costs due to the Middle East conflict, which raised market expectations for inflation to exceed 4.5% later in 2026.
Economic forecasts project inflation to peak “at or above” 4.5% on an annual basis this summer as Iran war supply shocks ripple through the U.S. economy
Above 4.5% surges to 78%22%
Consulting firm RSM and other economists forecast inflation will surpass 4.5% due to ongoing energy.
Major brokerages like BofA and Goldman Sachs push back expectations for Fed rate cuts citing persistent inflation risks from high energy
Major brokerages like BofA and Goldman Sachs push back expectations for Fed rate cuts citing persistent inflation risks from high energy
Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey shows short-term inflation expectations increase to 3.6%, reflecting growing concerns about inflation persistence amid energy
Above 4% jumps to 74%12%
Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey shows short-term inflation expectations increase to 3.6%, reflecting growing concerns about inflation persistence amid energy
Reuters reports inflation expected to exceed 4% in May 2026, citing UBS economist forecasting headline CPI inflation at 4.3% due to surging gasoline
Above 4% surges to 74%33%
Reuters reports inflation expected to exceed 4% in May 2026, citing UBS economist forecasting headline CPI inflation at 4.3% due to surging gasoline
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, acknowledges elevated inflation and uncertainty from Middle East developments, signaling no imminent rate cuts and
Above 5% rises to 28%2%
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, acknowledges elevated inflation and uncertainty from Middle East developments, signaling no imminent rate cuts and supporting higher inflation expectations
April CPI report preview and market commentary highlight rising inflation expectations amid ongoing Middle East conflict, with energy
Above 4% drops to 41%5%
April CPI report preview and market commentary highlight rising inflation expectations amid ongoing Middle East conflict, with energy
April 2026 CPI release shows a 0.6% monthly increase and 3.8% annual inflation, with shelter and gasoline
Above 8% dips to 7%1%
April 2026 CPI release shows a 0.6% monthly increase and 3.8% annual inflation, with shelter and gasoline
April CPI data reveals inflation at 3.8%, highest since May 2023, driven by energy
Above 10% rises to 6%2%
April CPI data reveals inflation at 3.8%, highest since May 2023, driven by energy
March 2026 CPI report reveals sharp inflation surge to 3.3% YoY, driven by a 21.2% monthly gasoline
Above 6% jumps to 13%8%
March 2026 CPI report reveals sharp inflation surge to 3.3% YoY, driven by a 21.2% monthly gasoline
April 2026 CPI preview and rising oil
Above 5% jumps to 34%10%
April 2026 CPI preview and rising oil
March 2026 CPI report reveals a 0.9% monthly increase and 3.3% annual inflation, driven by a sharp 21.2% monthly rise in gasoline
Above 8% jumps to 11%6%
March 2026 CPI report reveals a 0.9% monthly increase and 3.3% annual inflation, driven by a sharp 21.2% monthly rise in gasoline
Federal Reserve releases FOMC projections showing inflation expected to remain elevated through 2026, with PCE inflation forecast raised to 2.7% for year-end 2026, signaling
Above 4% rises to 44%2%
Federal Reserve releases FOMC projections showing inflation expected to remain elevated through 2026, with PCE inflation forecast raised to 2.7% for year-end 2026, signaling persistent inflation risks
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid uncertainty from the Iran conflict, with Chair Powell noting higher energy
Above 5% jumps to 24%8%
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid uncertainty from the Iran conflict, with Chair Powell noting higher energy
February 2026 CPI report shows steady inflation at 2.4% YoY, with core inflation stable at 2.5%; energy
Above 6% dips to 5%2%
February 2026 CPI report shows steady inflation at 2.4% YoY, with core inflation stable at 2.5%; energy
February 2026 CPI data released with 0.3% monthly rise and 2.4% annual inflation, confirming stable inflation environment and causing a trough in market
Above 8% dips to 2%1%
February 2026 CPI data released with 0.3% monthly rise and 2.4% annual inflation, confirming stable inflation environment and causing a trough in market
U.S. inflation jumps to 3.3% in March 2026, highest since May 2024, driven by energy
Above 4% jumps to 42%10%
U.S. inflation jumps to 3.3% in March 2026, highest since May 2024, driven by energy
March 2026 CPI report shows inflation jumped to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy
Above 5% jumps to 14%8%
March 2026 CPI report shows inflation jumped to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by energy
March CPI report shows inflation rising to 3.3% driven by energy costs linked to the ongoing Iran war, but still far below 10%, leading to a
Above 10% drops to 5%8%
March CPI report shows inflation rising to 3.3% driven by energy costs linked to the ongoing Iran war, but still far below 10%, leading to a
U.S. Supreme Court rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize certain tariffs, creating uncertainty about tariff inflation impact but tariffs
Above 10% rises to 15%4%
U.S. Supreme Court rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize certain tariffs, creating uncertainty about tariff inflation impact but tariffs remain a factor, contributing to
US Supreme Court rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize certain tariffs, signaling a potential easing of tariff-related inflation pressures
Above 5% jumps to 16%7%
US Supreme Court rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize certain tariffs, signaling a potential easing of tariff-related inflation pressures later in 2026, influencing market expectations
U.S. Supreme Court rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize certain tariffs, but tariff burden remains high, sustaining inflationary pressures
Above 4% rises to 14%3%
U.S. Supreme Court rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize certain tariffs, but tariff burden remains high, sustaining inflationary pressures into 2026
January 2026 CPI report shows a modest 0.2% monthly increase and 2.4% annual inflation, reinforcing expectations of moderate inflation and pushing market
Above 8% dips to 3%3%
January 2026 CPI report shows a modest 0.2% monthly increase and 2.4% annual inflation, reinforcing expectations of moderate inflation and pushing market
January 2026 CPI report shows inflation easing to 2.4% year-over-year, below forecasts, with core inflation at 2.5%, signaling some cooling but still above Fed target;
Above 6% dips to 7%1%
market adjusts to slower inflation growth
January 2026 CPI data shows sticky inflation with goods
Above 5% rises to 9%1%
January 2026 CPI data shows sticky inflation with goods
The New York Times reports goods inflation rising due to Trump administration tariffs implemented in 2025, contributing to sticky inflation pressures despite overall moderation
Above 4% dips to 11%3%
The New York Times reports goods inflation rising due to Trump administration tariffs implemented in 2025, contributing to sticky inflation pressures despite overall moderation
Bureau of Labor Statistics releases December 2025 CPI showing 2.7% annual inflation, down from previous months, signaling easing inflation and reducing Above 8% inflation
Above 8% dips to 6%1%
Bureau of Labor Statistics releases December 2025 CPI showing 2.7% annual inflation, down from previous months, signaling easing inflation and reducing Above 8% inflation probability
December 2025 CPI report released, confirming inflation at 2.7% annual rate with sticky
Above 6% dips to 8%2%
December 2025 CPI report released, confirming inflation at 2.7% annual rate with sticky
January 2026 CPI data and economic reports show inflation steady but core inflation remains above 2.5%, with tariffs and wage growth concerns, causing a
Above 10% jumps to 15%9%
January 2026 CPI data and economic reports show inflation steady but core inflation remains above 2.5%, with tariffs and wage growth concerns, causing a
November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7%, cooler than expected, but data distorted by October government shutdown causing missing data and carry-forward imputation;
Above 6% plunges to 10%37%
market cautious on inflation outlook
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025 to 3.5%-3.75%, signaling cautious outlook amid persistent inflation above target, influencing market inflation
Above 5% rises to 12%3%
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025 to 3.5%-3.75%, signaling cautious outlook amid persistent inflation above target, influencing market inflation expectations
Federal Reserve maintains cautious stance on rate cuts amid sticky inflation and tariff-driven
Above 10% drops to 5%5%
Federal Reserve maintains cautious stance on rate cuts amid sticky inflation and tariff-driven
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7%, lower than earlier fears and following a government shutdown that delayed data,
Above 10% drops to 7%13%
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7%, lower than earlier fears and following a government shutdown that delayed data, causing initial market uncertainty and a sharp
U.S. government shutdown delays October and November 2025 CPI data releases, creating initial uncertainty about inflation trends and causing a sharp drop in market
Above 8% plunges to 23%15%
U.S. government shutdown delays October and November 2025 CPI data releases, creating initial uncertainty about inflation trends and causing a sharp drop in market
November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7%, with data collection affected by the government shutdown, raising uncertainty about inflation trends and causing initial market
Above 5% drops to 10%9%
November 2025 CPI report shows inflation at 2.7%, with data collection affected by the government shutdown, raising uncertainty about inflation trends and causing initial market volatility
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7%, with some upward pressure from tariffs and energy
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases November 2025 CPI report showing inflation at 2.7%, with some upward pressure from tariffs and energy
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