Trader consensus for Codex resets in the week of September 21 shows a tight contest among one, two, or three resets, each holding market-implied odds near 25-26 percent. This balanced positioning stems from uncertainty in large language model development cycles, where internal testing outcomes, competitive moves by other AI labs, and shifting deployment priorities can alter reset frequency without clear advance signals. Recent verified updates to coding capabilities and benchmark evaluations have added nuance but failed to break the deadlock, as traders weigh historical patterns of incremental tweaks against potential major revisions. Key upcoming catalysts include any official statements on model versioning or regulatory reviews that could tip sentiment in the final days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2 26%
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This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on September 21, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on September 27, 2026.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus for Codex resets in the week of September 21 shows a tight contest among one, two, or three resets, each holding market-implied odds near 25-26 percent. This balanced positioning stems from uncertainty in large language model development cycles, where internal testing outcomes, competitive moves by other AI labs, and shifting deployment priorities can alter reset frequency without clear advance signals. Recent verified updates to coding capabilities and benchmark evaluations have added nuance but failed to break the deadlock, as traders weigh historical patterns of incremental tweaks against potential major revisions. Key upcoming catalysts include any official statements on model versioning or regulatory reviews that could tip sentiment in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on September 21, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on September 27, 2026.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on September 21, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on September 27, 2026.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus for Codex resets in the week of September 21 shows a tight contest among one, two, or three resets, each holding market-implied odds near 25-26 percent. This balanced positioning stems from uncertainty in large language model development cycles, where internal testing outcomes, competitive moves by other AI labs, and shifting deployment priorities can alter reset frequency without clear advance signals. Recent verified updates to coding capabilities and benchmark evaluations have added nuance but failed to break the deadlock, as traders weigh historical patterns of incremental tweaks against potential major revisions. Key upcoming catalysts include any official statements on model versioning or regulatory reviews that could tip sentiment in the final days.
This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on September 21, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on September 27, 2026.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total.
A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences.
Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted.
An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945.
This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for Codex resets in the week of September 21 shows a tight contest among one, two, or three resets, each holding market-implied odds near 25-26 percent. This balanced positioning stems from uncertainty in large language model development cycles, where internal testing outcomes, competitive moves by other AI labs, and shifting deployment priorities can alter reset frequency without clear advance signals. Recent verified updates to coding capabilities and benchmark evaluations have added nuance but failed to break the deadlock, as traders weigh historical patterns of incremental tweaks against potential major revisions. Key upcoming catalysts include any official statements on model versioning or regulatory reviews that could tip sentiment in the final days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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