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Economy·Fed Rates

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

icon for How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Economy·Fed Rates

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 95.6%

1 (25 bps) 1.3%

2 (50 bps) <1%

3 (75 bps) <1%

Polymarket

$53,083,132 Vol.

0 (0 bps) 95.6%

1 (25 bps) 1.3%

2 (50 bps) <1%

3 (75 bps) <1%

Polymarket

$53,083,132 Vol.

0 (0 bps)

$8,459,979 Vol.

96%

1 (25 bps)

$3,245,470 Vol.

1%

2 (50 bps)

$3,229,835 Vol.

<1%

3 (75 bps)

$2,928,409 Vol.

<1%

4 (100 bps)

$2,729,796 Vol.

<1%

5 (125 bps)

$2,986,228 Vol.

<1%

6 (150 bps)

$4,222,076 Vol.

<1%

7 (175 bps)

$3,523,869 Vol.

<1%

8 (200 bps)

$3,292,613 Vol.

<1%

9 (225 bps)

$4,286,511 Vol.

<1%

10 (250 bps)

$4,951,980 Vol.

<1%

11 (275 bps)

$5,268,834 Vol.

<1%

12+ (300+ bps)

$3,957,532 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, paired with updated projections showing a median path holding rates near that level through 2027 and most participants expecting at least one more hike by year-end, underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability of zero cuts in 2026. Persistent inflation, with core PCE near 3.4% and headline around 3.7%, alongside resilient growth and stable labor market conditions, has shifted the policy stance toward further tightening under Chair Warsh. Traders pricing in this path view the data trajectory and official guidance as inconsistent with any easing this year. A sharp deterioration in employment or faster-than-expected inflation moderation could still alter the outlook.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$53,083,132
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, paired with updated projections showing a median path holding rates near that level through 2027 and most participants expecting at least one more hike by year-end, underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability of zero cuts in 2026. Persistent inflation, with core PCE near 3.4% and headline around 3.7%, alongside resilient growth and stable labor market conditions, has shifted the policy stance toward further tightening under Chair Warsh. Traders pricing in this path view the data trajectory and official guidance as inconsistent with any easing this year. A sharp deterioration in employment or faster-than-expected inflation moderation could still alter the outlook.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$53,083,132
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0 (0 bps)" at 96%, followed by "1 (25 bps)" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" has generated $53.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" is "0 (0 bps)" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1 (25 bps)" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.