Recent Houthi maritime restrictions and renewed threats in July have driven a sharp but stabilizing decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits to the low-to-mid 260s per week, keeping the market tightly balanced across the 180-219 buckets as traders weigh route economics against persistent security risks. Shipping lines continue diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid elevated war-risk premiums and potential attacks, while daily volumes fluctuate with commodity flows and ad-hoc routing decisions. Key swing factors include any easing of the Saudi-focused embargo, insurance market signals, or fresh incidents that could push totals below 200 or allow a modest rebound toward 220-plus. The close probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether volumes have fully bottomed or face further pressure from ongoing regional tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
180-199 33%
220+ 17%
<180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 Vol.
$12,247 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
31%
180-199
33%
200-219
38%
220+
30%
180-199 33%
220+ 17%
<180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 Vol.
$12,247 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$6,149 Vol.
31%
180-199
$2,022 Vol.
33%
200-219
$812 Vol.
38%
220+
$3,264 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime restrictions and renewed threats in July have driven a sharp but stabilizing decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits to the low-to-mid 260s per week, keeping the market tightly balanced across the 180-219 buckets as traders weigh route economics against persistent security risks. Shipping lines continue diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid elevated war-risk premiums and potential attacks, while daily volumes fluctuate with commodity flows and ad-hoc routing decisions. Key swing factors include any easing of the Saudi-focused embargo, insurance market signals, or fresh incidents that could push totals below 200 or allow a modest rebound toward 220-plus. The close probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether volumes have fully bottomed or face further pressure from ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$12,247End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime restrictions and renewed threats in July have driven a sharp but stabilizing decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits to the low-to-mid 260s per week, keeping the market tightly balanced across the 180-219 buckets as traders weigh route economics against persistent security risks. Shipping lines continue diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid elevated war-risk premiums and potential attacks, while daily volumes fluctuate with commodity flows and ad-hoc routing decisions. Key swing factors include any easing of the Saudi-focused embargo, insurance market signals, or fresh incidents that could push totals below 200 or allow a modest rebound toward 220-plus. The close probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether volumes have fully bottomed or face further pressure from ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$12,247End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi maritime restrictions and renewed threats in July have driven a sharp but stabilizing decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits to the low-to-mid 260s per week, keeping the market tightly balanced across the 180-219 buckets as traders weigh route economics against persistent security risks. Shipping lines continue diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid elevated war-risk premiums and potential attacks, while daily volumes fluctuate with commodity flows and ad-hoc routing decisions. Key swing factors include any easing of the Saudi-focused embargo, insurance market signals, or fresh incidents that could push totals below 200 or allow a modest rebound toward 220-plus. The close probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether volumes have fully bottomed or face further pressure from ongoing regional tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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