Early May 2026 has featured multiple severe-weather outbreaks, including a notable event on May 6–7 across the Southeast that produced several EF2–EF3 tornadoes, keeping cumulative counts on pace with or slightly above the 1991–2020 average of roughly 265 tornadoes for the full month. Traders are therefore clustering around the 230–289 range because atmospheric conditions—strong low-level shear, elevated convective available potential energy from Gulf moisture, and a northward-shifted jet stream—continue to favor discrete supercells through the peak climatological window. Model guidance through late May shows modest variability in steering patterns that could add or subtract dozens of confirmed touchdowns, leaving the closely matched 260–289 and 200–229 bins reflective of genuine uncertainty in final Storm Prediction Center verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
200–229 47%
<200 42%
260–289 39%
230–259 37%
NEW
NEW
Jun 8, 2026
<200
34%
200–229
47%
230–259
37%
260–289
39%
290–319
11%
320–349
9%
350–379
10%
380–410
15%
410+
9%
200–229 47%
<200 42%
260–289 39%
230–259 37%
NEW
NEW
Jun 8, 2026
<200
$228 Vol.
34%
200–229
$0 Vol.
47%
230–259
$0 Vol.
37%
260–289
$0 Vol.
39%
290–319
$0 Vol.
11%
320–349
$10 Vol.
9%
350–379
$10 Vol.
10%
380–410
$0 Vol.
15%
410+
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early May 2026 has featured multiple severe-weather outbreaks, including a notable event on May 6–7 across the Southeast that produced several EF2–EF3 tornadoes, keeping cumulative counts on pace with or slightly above the 1991–2020 average of roughly 265 tornadoes for the full month. Traders are therefore clustering around the 230–289 range because atmospheric conditions—strong low-level shear, elevated convective available potential energy from Gulf moisture, and a northward-shifted jet stream—continue to favor discrete supercells through the peak climatological window. Model guidance through late May shows modest variability in steering patterns that could add or subtract dozens of confirmed touchdowns, leaving the closely matched 260–289 and 200–229 bins reflective of genuine uncertainty in final Storm Prediction Center verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$248End Date
Jun 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early May 2026 has featured multiple severe-weather outbreaks, including a notable event on May 6–7 across the Southeast that produced several EF2–EF3 tornadoes, keeping cumulative counts on pace with or slightly above the 1991–2020 average of roughly 265 tornadoes for the full month. Traders are therefore clustering around the 230–289 range because atmospheric conditions—strong low-level shear, elevated convective available potential energy from Gulf moisture, and a northward-shifted jet stream—continue to favor discrete supercells through the peak climatological window. Model guidance through late May shows modest variability in steering patterns that could add or subtract dozens of confirmed touchdowns, leaving the closely matched 260–289 and 200–229 bins reflective of genuine uncertainty in final Storm Prediction Center verification.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$248End Date
Jun 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early May 2026 has featured multiple severe-weather outbreaks, including a notable event on May 6–7 across the Southeast that produced several EF2–EF3 tornadoes, keeping cumulative counts on pace with or slightly above the 1991–2020 average of roughly 265 tornadoes for the full month. Traders are therefore clustering around the 230–289 range because atmospheric conditions—strong low-level shear, elevated convective available potential energy from Gulf moisture, and a northward-shifted jet stream—continue to favor discrete supercells through the peak climatological window. Model guidance through late May shows modest variability in steering patterns that could add or subtract dozens of confirmed touchdowns, leaving the closely matched 260–289 and 200–229 bins reflective of genuine uncertainty in final Storm Prediction Center verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions