Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a May 6-7 event across the Southeast and Plains that produced multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes, have pushed early-month totals toward or slightly above the long-term average of roughly 265-280 tornadoes for May. Trader consensus now clusters around the 200-289 range because the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlooks continue to highlight enhanced and moderate risks through mid-to-late May, driven by a northward-shifted jet stream, abundant Gulf moisture, and strong wind shear that favor discrete supercells. Remaining uncertainty stems from how quickly these patterns evolve over the next two weeks, with any extended stable high-pressure ridge potentially suppressing counts toward the lower bins while additional strong troughs could push totals higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 42%
200–229 41%
260–289 39%
230–259 38%
NEW
NEW
Jun 8, 2026
<200
34%
200–229
41%
230–259
38%
260–289
39%
290–319
13%
320–349
11%
350–379
11%
380–410
9%
410+
9%
<200 42%
200–229 41%
260–289 39%
230–259 38%
NEW
NEW
Jun 8, 2026
<200
$228 Vol.
34%
200–229
$0 Vol.
41%
230–259
$0 Vol.
38%
260–289
$0 Vol.
39%
290–319
$0 Vol.
13%
320–349
$10 Vol.
11%
350–379
$10 Vol.
11%
380–410
$0 Vol.
9%
410+
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a May 6-7 event across the Southeast and Plains that produced multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes, have pushed early-month totals toward or slightly above the long-term average of roughly 265-280 tornadoes for May. Trader consensus now clusters around the 200-289 range because the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlooks continue to highlight enhanced and moderate risks through mid-to-late May, driven by a northward-shifted jet stream, abundant Gulf moisture, and strong wind shear that favor discrete supercells. Remaining uncertainty stems from how quickly these patterns evolve over the next two weeks, with any extended stable high-pressure ridge potentially suppressing counts toward the lower bins while additional strong troughs could push totals higher.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$248End Date
Jun 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a May 6-7 event across the Southeast and Plains that produced multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes, have pushed early-month totals toward or slightly above the long-term average of roughly 265-280 tornadoes for May. Trader consensus now clusters around the 200-289 range because the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlooks continue to highlight enhanced and moderate risks through mid-to-late May, driven by a northward-shifted jet stream, abundant Gulf moisture, and strong wind shear that favor discrete supercells. Remaining uncertainty stems from how quickly these patterns evolve over the next two weeks, with any extended stable high-pressure ridge potentially suppressing counts toward the lower bins while additional strong troughs could push totals higher.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$248End Date
Jun 8, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent severe weather outbreaks, including a May 6-7 event across the Southeast and Plains that produced multiple EF2-EF3 tornadoes, have pushed early-month totals toward or slightly above the long-term average of roughly 265-280 tornadoes for May. Trader consensus now clusters around the 200-289 range because the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlooks continue to highlight enhanced and moderate risks through mid-to-late May, driven by a northward-shifted jet stream, abundant Gulf moisture, and strong wind shear that favor discrete supercells. Remaining uncertainty stems from how quickly these patterns evolve over the next two weeks, with any extended stable high-pressure ridge potentially suppressing counts toward the lower bins while additional strong troughs could push totals higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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