The 2026 Lima municipal election on October 4 produced a narrow victory for the Renovación Popular list at 27.7% of valid votes, just ahead of Avanza País at 26.8%, with Carlos Bruce third at around 15%. Rafael López Aliaga headed that list as first regidor after the original mayoral candidate withdrew, yet Peru’s constitutional bar on immediate mayoral re-election has triggered rulings by the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones blocking him from receiving credentials. Subsequent appeals, procedural disputes over regidor succession, and the possibility that the second regidor or another officeholder assumes the post have left the final outcome unresolved. Traders therefore assign low probabilities to any named candidate while pricing significant uncertainty into “Other,” reflecting the legal and institutional hurdles that continue to shape resolution prospects.