**Forecast uncertainty in Beijing's overnight minimum on September 23 stems from diverging model guidance on radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light southerly-to-northeasterly winds.** Current conditions show mild autumnal temperatures (highs near 29–31 °C, lows 17–19 °C), with official and ensemble forecasts clustering the Sep 23 low around 16–19 °C amid partly cloudy skies. Clearer nocturnal conditions could allow stronger surface cooling toward the lower teens, while increased humidity or wind would limit drops. The near-even market odds between sub-13 °C and 23 °C+ outcomes reflect this sensitivity to small shifts in boundary-layer moisture and high-pressure positioning, typical for transitional September weather in northern China where climatological normals sit near 15–18 °C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 23?
23°C or higher 96%
13°C or below 95%
16°C 40%
17°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
95%
14°C
39%
15°C
39%
16°C
40%
17°C
40%
18°C
21%
19°C
39%
20°C
6%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C or higher
96%
23°C or higher 96%
13°C or below 95%
16°C 40%
17°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
95%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$53 Vol.
6%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty in Beijing's overnight minimum on September 23 stems from diverging model guidance on radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light southerly-to-northeasterly winds.** Current conditions show mild autumnal temperatures (highs near 29–31 °C, lows 17–19 °C), with official and ensemble forecasts clustering the Sep 23 low around 16–19 °C amid partly cloudy skies. Clearer nocturnal conditions could allow stronger surface cooling toward the lower teens, while increased humidity or wind would limit drops. The near-even market odds between sub-13 °C and 23 °C+ outcomes reflect this sensitivity to small shifts in boundary-layer moisture and high-pressure positioning, typical for transitional September weather in northern China where climatological normals sit near 15–18 °C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$53End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty in Beijing's overnight minimum on September 23 stems from diverging model guidance on radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light southerly-to-northeasterly winds.** Current conditions show mild autumnal temperatures (highs near 29–31 °C, lows 17–19 °C), with official and ensemble forecasts clustering the Sep 23 low around 16–19 °C amid partly cloudy skies. Clearer nocturnal conditions could allow stronger surface cooling toward the lower teens, while increased humidity or wind would limit drops. The near-even market odds between sub-13 °C and 23 °C+ outcomes reflect this sensitivity to small shifts in boundary-layer moisture and high-pressure positioning, typical for transitional September weather in northern China where climatological normals sit near 15–18 °C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$53End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty in Beijing's overnight minimum on September 23 stems from diverging model guidance on radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light southerly-to-northeasterly winds.** Current conditions show mild autumnal temperatures (highs near 29–31 °C, lows 17–19 °C), with official and ensemble forecasts clustering the Sep 23 low around 16–19 °C amid partly cloudy skies. Clearer nocturnal conditions could allow stronger surface cooling toward the lower teens, while increased humidity or wind would limit drops. The near-even market odds between sub-13 °C and 23 °C+ outcomes reflect this sensitivity to small shifts in boundary-layer moisture and high-pressure positioning, typical for transitional September weather in northern China where climatological normals sit near 15–18 °C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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