**Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate a minimum temperature on September 3 centered in the mid-20s °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 25°C (38%), 24°C (24%), and 26°C (19.5%).** Northwest winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Saudel, currently traversing the northern South China Sea, are expected to maintain mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers through September 3. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling under the subtropical high, keeping overnight lows from dropping below the seasonal norm. Official guidance projects a daily range of 25–30°C, with model consensus (including ECMWF and local runs) pointing to an early-morning minimum near 24–26°C amid humid maritime air and dew points in the low-to-mid 20s. A developing El Niño event is contributing to broader warmth across the western Pacific, but the immediate synoptic pattern—persistent cloud cover and moderate northwest flow—dominates short-term temperature evolution. Historical September minima in Hong Kong average near 25–26°C, and current model agreement around this band, with low probability of clear-sky radiational cooling or stronger cold-air advection, explains the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities in the 24–26°C range. Updated HKO and NWP guidance ahead of September 3 will provide the next key data point for any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?
25°C 38%
24°C 24%
26°C 20%
28°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
20°C or below
7%
21°C
14%
22°C
10%
23°C
11%
24°C
24%
25°C
38%
26°C
20%
27°C
10%
28°C
17%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
13%
25°C 38%
24°C 24%
26°C 20%
28°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
7%
21°C
$5 Vol.
14%
22°C
$20 Vol.
10%
23°C
$0 Vol.
11%
24°C
$0 Vol.
24%
25°C
$0 Vol.
38%
26°C
$0 Vol.
20%
27°C
$0 Vol.
10%
28°C
$5 Vol.
17%
29°C
$5 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$7 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate a minimum temperature on September 3 centered in the mid-20s °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 25°C (38%), 24°C (24%), and 26°C (19.5%).**
Northwest winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Saudel, currently traversing the northern South China Sea, are expected to maintain mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers through September 3. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling under the subtropical high, keeping overnight lows from dropping below the seasonal norm. Official guidance projects a daily range of 25–30°C, with model consensus (including ECMWF and local runs) pointing to an early-morning minimum near 24–26°C amid humid maritime air and dew points in the low-to-mid 20s.
A developing El Niño event is contributing to broader warmth across the western Pacific, but the immediate synoptic pattern—persistent cloud cover and moderate northwest flow—dominates short-term temperature evolution. Historical September minima in Hong Kong average near 25–26°C, and current model agreement around this band, with low probability of clear-sky radiational cooling or stronger cold-air advection, explains the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities in the 24–26°C range. Updated HKO and NWP guidance ahead of September 3 will provide the next key data point for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$47End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate a minimum temperature on September 3 centered in the mid-20s °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 25°C (38%), 24°C (24%), and 26°C (19.5%).**
Northwest winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Saudel, currently traversing the northern South China Sea, are expected to maintain mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers through September 3. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling under the subtropical high, keeping overnight lows from dropping below the seasonal norm. Official guidance projects a daily range of 25–30°C, with model consensus (including ECMWF and local runs) pointing to an early-morning minimum near 24–26°C amid humid maritime air and dew points in the low-to-mid 20s.
A developing El Niño event is contributing to broader warmth across the western Pacific, but the immediate synoptic pattern—persistent cloud cover and moderate northwest flow—dominates short-term temperature evolution. Historical September minima in Hong Kong average near 25–26°C, and current model agreement around this band, with low probability of clear-sky radiational cooling or stronger cold-air advection, explains the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities in the 24–26°C range. Updated HKO and NWP guidance ahead of September 3 will provide the next key data point for any shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate a minimum temperature on September 3 centered in the mid-20s °C, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 25°C (38%), 24°C (24%), and 26°C (19.5%).** Northwest winds associated with Tropical Cyclone Saudel, currently traversing the northern South China Sea, are expected to maintain mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers through September 3. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling under the subtropical high, keeping overnight lows from dropping below the seasonal norm. Official guidance projects a daily range of 25–30°C, with model consensus (including ECMWF and local runs) pointing to an early-morning minimum near 24–26°C amid humid maritime air and dew points in the low-to-mid 20s. A developing El Niño event is contributing to broader warmth across the western Pacific, but the immediate synoptic pattern—persistent cloud cover and moderate northwest flow—dominates short-term temperature evolution. Historical September minima in Hong Kong average near 25–26°C, and current model agreement around this band, with low probability of clear-sky radiational cooling or stronger cold-air advection, explains the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities in the 24–26°C range. Updated HKO and NWP guidance ahead of September 3 will provide the next key data point for any shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions