Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office has positioned 18°C as the expected overnight minimum for London on August 16, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where temperatures have held above seasonal averages near 13–14°C, with ensemble runs showing minimal variance around this threshold. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability on 18°C captures this data-driven convergence ahead of official verification. A realistic shift would require late-model adjustments from unexpected frontal passage or stronger nocturnal cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes low-probability before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 16?
Lowest temperature in London on August 16?
18°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$20,028 Vol.
$20,028 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$20,028 Vol.
$20,028 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
14°C or below
$1,219 Vol.
No
15°C
$828 Vol.
No
16°C
$3,656 Vol.
No
17°C
$5,510 Vol.
No
18°C
$4,846 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$1,311 Vol.
No
20°C
$569 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,548 Vol.
No
22°C
$177 Vol.
No
23°C
$182 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$182 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office has positioned 18°C as the expected overnight minimum for London on August 16, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where temperatures have held above seasonal averages near 13–14°C, with ensemble runs showing minimal variance around this threshold. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability on 18°C captures this data-driven convergence ahead of official verification. A realistic shift would require late-model adjustments from unexpected frontal passage or stronger nocturnal cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes low-probability before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$20,028End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office has positioned 18°C as the expected overnight minimum for London on August 16, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where temperatures have held above seasonal averages near 13–14°C, with ensemble runs showing minimal variance around this threshold. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability on 18°C captures this data-driven convergence ahead of official verification. A realistic shift would require late-model adjustments from unexpected frontal passage or stronger nocturnal cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes low-probability before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,028End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecast model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office has positioned 18°C as the expected overnight minimum for London on August 16, reflecting stable high-pressure conditions, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with observed trends where temperatures have held above seasonal averages near 13–14°C, with ensemble runs showing minimal variance around this threshold. Trader positioning at near-100% implied probability on 18°C captures this data-driven convergence ahead of official verification. A realistic shift would require late-model adjustments from unexpected frontal passage or stronger nocturnal cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such outcomes low-probability before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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