Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble forecasts position the minimum temperature in London for August 18 near 16–18 °C, driven by a transition to cloudier, less settled conditions that limit overnight radiative cooling while a mild Atlantic airflow persists. This follows an exceptionally warm summer with UK mean temperatures running well above the 1991–2020 baseline, though a moderating trend has emerged in the latest model runs. Traders’ emphasis on 18 °C (41 %) and 19 °C (30.5 %) reflects model spread around cloud cover and wind strength, which can raise minima by 2–3 °C relative to clear-sky baselines. Historical August overnight lows average 13–14 °C, underscoring how current synoptic patterns elevate probabilities for the upper end of the distribution; updated NWP runs and observational data from the coming 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 18?
Lowest temperature in London on August 18?
18°C 41%
19°C 31%
17°C 19%
16°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
14°C or below
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
8%
17°C
19%
18°C
41%
19°C
31%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
18°C 41%
19°C 31%
17°C 19%
16°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
14°C or below
$21 Vol.
3%
15°C
$11 Vol.
3%
16°C
$0 Vol.
8%
17°C
$362 Vol.
19%
18°C
$365 Vol.
41%
19°C
$477 Vol.
31%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C
$93 Vol.
1%
22°C
$10 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble forecasts position the minimum temperature in London for August 18 near 16–18 °C, driven by a transition to cloudier, less settled conditions that limit overnight radiative cooling while a mild Atlantic airflow persists. This follows an exceptionally warm summer with UK mean temperatures running well above the 1991–2020 baseline, though a moderating trend has emerged in the latest model runs. Traders’ emphasis on 18 °C (41 %) and 19 °C (30.5 %) reflects model spread around cloud cover and wind strength, which can raise minima by 2–3 °C relative to clear-sky baselines. Historical August overnight lows average 13–14 °C, underscoring how current synoptic patterns elevate probabilities for the upper end of the distribution; updated NWP runs and observational data from the coming 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,340End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble forecasts position the minimum temperature in London for August 18 near 16–18 °C, driven by a transition to cloudier, less settled conditions that limit overnight radiative cooling while a mild Atlantic airflow persists. This follows an exceptionally warm summer with UK mean temperatures running well above the 1991–2020 baseline, though a moderating trend has emerged in the latest model runs. Traders’ emphasis on 18 °C (41 %) and 19 °C (30.5 %) reflects model spread around cloud cover and wind strength, which can raise minima by 2–3 °C relative to clear-sky baselines. Historical August overnight lows average 13–14 °C, underscoring how current synoptic patterns elevate probabilities for the upper end of the distribution; updated NWP runs and observational data from the coming 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,340End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble forecasts position the minimum temperature in London for August 18 near 16–18 °C, driven by a transition to cloudier, less settled conditions that limit overnight radiative cooling while a mild Atlantic airflow persists. This follows an exceptionally warm summer with UK mean temperatures running well above the 1991–2020 baseline, though a moderating trend has emerged in the latest model runs. Traders’ emphasis on 18 °C (41 %) and 19 °C (30.5 %) reflects model spread around cloud cover and wind strength, which can raise minima by 2–3 °C relative to clear-sky baselines. Historical August overnight lows average 13–14 °C, underscoring how current synoptic patterns elevate probabilities for the upper end of the distribution; updated NWP runs and observational data from the coming 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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