Forecast models from sources including GFS and national meteorological services indicate Moscow's September 23 overnight low will likely fall between 11–14°C, driven by southeasterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers that limit radiative cooling. This range aligns with climatological norms for late September while reflecting modest uncertainty from model spread in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing. The market's elevated probability for 19°C or higher (38%) versus 9°C or below (30.5%) highlights trader focus on whether daytime warmth persists into the minimum or if clearer skies overnight allow further drops, with resolution hinging on official station readings near dawn. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of September 22 will refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 23?
19°C or higher 73%
9°C or below 31%
12°C 27%
11°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
9°C or below
31%
10°C
23%
11°C
25%
12°C
27%
13°C
22%
14°C
21%
15°C
21%
16°C
5%
17°C
13%
18°C
13%
19°C or higher
73%
19°C or higher 73%
9°C or below 31%
12°C 27%
11°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
31%
10°C
$0 Vol.
23%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$40 Vol.
5%
17°C
$40 Vol.
13%
18°C
$100 Vol.
13%
19°C or higher
$100 Vol.
73%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including GFS and national meteorological services indicate Moscow's September 23 overnight low will likely fall between 11–14°C, driven by southeasterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers that limit radiative cooling. This range aligns with climatological norms for late September while reflecting modest uncertainty from model spread in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing. The market's elevated probability for 19°C or higher (38%) versus 9°C or below (30.5%) highlights trader focus on whether daytime warmth persists into the minimum or if clearer skies overnight allow further drops, with resolution hinging on official station readings near dawn. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of September 22 will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$281End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including GFS and national meteorological services indicate Moscow's September 23 overnight low will likely fall between 11–14°C, driven by southeasterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers that limit radiative cooling. This range aligns with climatological norms for late September while reflecting modest uncertainty from model spread in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing. The market's elevated probability for 19°C or higher (38%) versus 9°C or below (30.5%) highlights trader focus on whether daytime warmth persists into the minimum or if clearer skies overnight allow further drops, with resolution hinging on official station readings near dawn. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of September 22 will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$281End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including GFS and national meteorological services indicate Moscow's September 23 overnight low will likely fall between 11–14°C, driven by southeasterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers that limit radiative cooling. This range aligns with climatological norms for late September while reflecting modest uncertainty from model spread in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing. The market's elevated probability for 19°C or higher (38%) versus 9°C or below (30.5%) highlights trader focus on whether daytime warmth persists into the minimum or if clearer skies overnight allow further drops, with resolution hinging on official station readings near dawn. Updated model runs and surface observations through the evening of September 22 will refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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