**Trader consensus heavily favors a 22°C low in Shanghai on September 22, 2026, reflecting consistent late-September forecast guidance from regional models.** Current conditions feature mild easterly to northeasterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 21–23°C that limit overnight radiational cooling. Multiple forecasts, including those aligned with GFS and local observations, converge on a minimum of 22–24°C (roughly 72–75°F), matching historical climatology for the period when Shanghai transitions from summer warmth without major frontal passages. The strong market-implied probability stems from stable model agreement through the evening hours and the absence of factors like clear skies or cold advection that could push readings lower. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in clear conditions or a sharper wind shift enabling greater cooling to 21°C or below, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 22?
22°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
18°C or below <1%
NEW
$15,661 Vol.
NEW
$15,661 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
99%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
18°C or below <1%
NEW
$15,661 Vol.
NEW
$15,661 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
18°C or below
$65 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$456 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,454 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,329 Vol.
99%
23°C
$3,199 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$6,649 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,369 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 22°C low in Shanghai on September 22, 2026, reflecting consistent late-September forecast guidance from regional models.**
Current conditions feature mild easterly to northeasterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 21–23°C that limit overnight radiational cooling. Multiple forecasts, including those aligned with GFS and local observations, converge on a minimum of 22–24°C (roughly 72–75°F), matching historical climatology for the period when Shanghai transitions from summer warmth without major frontal passages. The strong market-implied probability stems from stable model agreement through the evening hours and the absence of factors like clear skies or cold advection that could push readings lower.
A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in clear conditions or a sharper wind shift enabling greater cooling to 21°C or below, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$15,661End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 22°C low in Shanghai on September 22, 2026, reflecting consistent late-September forecast guidance from regional models.**
Current conditions feature mild easterly to northeasterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 21–23°C that limit overnight radiational cooling. Multiple forecasts, including those aligned with GFS and local observations, converge on a minimum of 22–24°C (roughly 72–75°F), matching historical climatology for the period when Shanghai transitions from summer warmth without major frontal passages. The strong market-implied probability stems from stable model agreement through the evening hours and the absence of factors like clear skies or cold advection that could push readings lower.
A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in clear conditions or a sharper wind shift enabling greater cooling to 21°C or below, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,661End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors a 22°C low in Shanghai on September 22, 2026, reflecting consistent late-September forecast guidance from regional models.** Current conditions feature mild easterly to northeasterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and dew points near 21–23°C that limit overnight radiational cooling. Multiple forecasts, including those aligned with GFS and local observations, converge on a minimum of 22–24°C (roughly 72–75°F), matching historical climatology for the period when Shanghai transitions from summer warmth without major frontal passages. The strong market-implied probability stems from stable model agreement through the evening hours and the absence of factors like clear skies or cold advection that could push readings lower. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in clear conditions or a sharper wind shift enabling greater cooling to 21°C or below, though current guidance shows low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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