Recent forecast consensus from numerical models shows Shanghai's overnight minimum on September 24 settling near 23–25 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. Persistent subtropical high pressure and residual monsoon moisture limit nocturnal radiative cooling while preventing significant cold-air advection, keeping values above seasonal late-September averages. Model spreads remain narrow because steering patterns are stable through the period, though any increase in cloud thickness or wind shift could trim the low by 1 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 23 °C and 24 °C, reflecting this tight range of official guidance ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 24?
24°C 34%
23°C 29%
25°C 23%
20°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
18°C or below
17%
19°C
18%
20°C
19%
21°C
14%
22°C
15%
23°C
29%
24°C
34%
25°C
23%
26°C
19%
27°C
18%
28°C or higher
19%
24°C 34%
23°C 29%
25°C 23%
20°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
17%
19°C
$0 Vol.
18%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$0 Vol.
14%
22°C
$10 Vol.
15%
23°C
$160 Vol.
29%
24°C
$218 Vol.
34%
25°C
$84 Vol.
23%
26°C
$0 Vol.
19%
27°C
$0 Vol.
18%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from numerical models shows Shanghai's overnight minimum on September 24 settling near 23–25 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. Persistent subtropical high pressure and residual monsoon moisture limit nocturnal radiative cooling while preventing significant cold-air advection, keeping values above seasonal late-September averages. Model spreads remain narrow because steering patterns are stable through the period, though any increase in cloud thickness or wind shift could trim the low by 1 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 23 °C and 24 °C, reflecting this tight range of official guidance ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$472End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from numerical models shows Shanghai's overnight minimum on September 24 settling near 23–25 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. Persistent subtropical high pressure and residual monsoon moisture limit nocturnal radiative cooling while preventing significant cold-air advection, keeping values above seasonal late-September averages. Model spreads remain narrow because steering patterns are stable through the period, though any increase in cloud thickness or wind shift could trim the low by 1 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 23 °C and 24 °C, reflecting this tight range of official guidance ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$472End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from numerical models shows Shanghai's overnight minimum on September 24 settling near 23–25 °C under mostly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. Persistent subtropical high pressure and residual monsoon moisture limit nocturnal radiative cooling while preventing significant cold-air advection, keeping values above seasonal late-September averages. Model spreads remain narrow because steering patterns are stable through the period, though any increase in cloud thickness or wind shift could trim the low by 1 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 23 °C and 24 °C, reflecting this tight range of official guidance ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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