Recent forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models indicate mild conditions for Wellington on August 27, driven by persistent northwesterlies that limit radiative cooling and suppress cold air advection from the south. Overnight lows are projected in the 9–12 °C range, consistent with near- or slightly above-average temperatures for late winter, when the climatological mean minimum sits near 8 °C. The absence of strong southerly changes or clear-sky radiative nights in the latest model runs supports the market’s clustering around 8–10 °C as the most probable outcomes, while the modest probabilities for 7 °C or lower reflect the limited window for any late intensification of cooling. Updated guidance through the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as the event window approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 27?
8°C 78%
7°C 45%
10°C 29%
9°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
5°C or below
19%
6°C
20%
7°C
45%
8°C
78%
9°C
26%
10°C
29%
11°C
25%
12°C
8%
13°C
8%
14°C
8%
15°C or higher
2%
8°C 78%
7°C 45%
10°C 29%
9°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
19%
6°C
$0 Vol.
20%
7°C
$0 Vol.
45%
8°C
$0 Vol.
78%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
29%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
8%
13°C
$0 Vol.
8%
14°C
$0 Vol.
8%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models indicate mild conditions for Wellington on August 27, driven by persistent northwesterlies that limit radiative cooling and suppress cold air advection from the south. Overnight lows are projected in the 9–12 °C range, consistent with near- or slightly above-average temperatures for late winter, when the climatological mean minimum sits near 8 °C. The absence of strong southerly changes or clear-sky radiative nights in the latest model runs supports the market’s clustering around 8–10 °C as the most probable outcomes, while the modest probabilities for 7 °C or lower reflect the limited window for any late intensification of cooling. Updated guidance through the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as the event window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models indicate mild conditions for Wellington on August 27, driven by persistent northwesterlies that limit radiative cooling and suppress cold air advection from the south. Overnight lows are projected in the 9–12 °C range, consistent with near- or slightly above-average temperatures for late winter, when the climatological mean minimum sits near 8 °C. The absence of strong southerly changes or clear-sky radiative nights in the latest model runs supports the market’s clustering around 8–10 °C as the most probable outcomes, while the modest probabilities for 7 °C or lower reflect the limited window for any late intensification of cooling. Updated guidance through the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as the event window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService, NIWA, and international models indicate mild conditions for Wellington on August 27, driven by persistent northwesterlies that limit radiative cooling and suppress cold air advection from the south. Overnight lows are projected in the 9–12 °C range, consistent with near- or slightly above-average temperatures for late winter, when the climatological mean minimum sits near 8 °C. The absence of strong southerly changes or clear-sky radiative nights in the latest model runs supports the market’s clustering around 8–10 °C as the most probable outcomes, while the modest probabilities for 7 °C or lower reflect the limited window for any late intensification of cooling. Updated guidance through the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as the event window approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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