Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50 years, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm 47 eruptions worldwide through early 2026, all below VEI 5, featuring ongoing low-level activity at sites like Kīlauea, Fuego, and Popocatépetl, with no evidence of deep magma recharge, rapid deformation, or high seismicity indicative of plinian-scale blasts. Realistic challenges include sudden unrest at calderas like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei, though current seismic, GPS, and gas monitoring remains at background levels; traders monitor weekly USGS updates and year-end VEI assessments for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$79,911 Vol.
$79,911 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
$79,911 Vol.
$79,911 Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50 years, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm 47 eruptions worldwide through early 2026, all below VEI 5, featuring ongoing low-level activity at sites like Kīlauea, Fuego, and Popocatépetl, with no evidence of deep magma recharge, rapid deformation, or high seismicity indicative of plinian-scale blasts. Realistic challenges include sudden unrest at calderas like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei, though current seismic, GPS, and gas monitoring remains at background levels; traders monitor weekly USGS updates and year-end VEI assessments for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$79,911End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50 years, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm 47 eruptions worldwide through early 2026, all below VEI 5, featuring ongoing low-level activity at sites like Kīlauea, Fuego, and Popocatépetl, with no evidence of deep magma recharge, rapid deformation, or high seismicity indicative of plinian-scale blasts. Realistic challenges include sudden unrest at calderas like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei, though current seismic, GPS, and gas monitoring remains at background levels; traders monitor weekly USGS updates and year-end VEI assessments for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$79,911End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcanic eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events—historically occurring roughly once every 50 years, with the last at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals at capable volcanoes. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data confirm 47 eruptions worldwide through early 2026, all below VEI 5, featuring ongoing low-level activity at sites like Kīlauea, Fuego, and Popocatépetl, with no evidence of deep magma recharge, rapid deformation, or high seismicity indicative of plinian-scale blasts. Realistic challenges include sudden unrest at calderas like Yellowstone or Campi Flegrei, though current seismic, GPS, and gas monitoring remains at background levels; traders monitor weekly USGS updates and year-end VEI assessments for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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