Recent low winter maximum extent near 14.29 million sq km and below-average July conditions, with Arctic-wide coverage at 6.62 million sq km on July 30 and further decline to about 6.2 million by mid-August, have elevated implied probabilities for a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million sq km range. Key variables include persistent warmth along the Atlantic margin accelerating melt, variable wind-driven ice export or compaction, ocean heat content influencing bottom melt, and late-summer weather patterns that can slow or intensify loss. NSIDC monitoring and updated seasonal forecasts will refine outcomes ahead of the typical early-to-mid September minimum, where historical analogs and current thickness data support the current market distribution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 27.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 21.9%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.7%
<4m sq km 11%
$68,025 Vol.
$68,025 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
11%
4.0-4.2m sq km
7%
4.2-4.4m sq km
16%
4.4-4.6m sq km
33%
4.6-4.8m sq km
22%
4.8-5m sq km
9%
5m+ sq km
2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 27.6%
4.6-4.8m sq km 21.9%
4.2-4.4m sq km 15.7%
<4m sq km 11%
$68,025 Vol.
$68,025 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,481 Vol.
11%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,592 Vol.
7%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,097 Vol.
16%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,128 Vol.
33%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,805 Vol.
22%
4.8-5m sq km
$3,447 Vol.
9%
5m+ sq km
$14,474 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extent near 14.29 million sq km and below-average July conditions, with Arctic-wide coverage at 6.62 million sq km on July 30 and further decline to about 6.2 million by mid-August, have elevated implied probabilities for a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million sq km range. Key variables include persistent warmth along the Atlantic margin accelerating melt, variable wind-driven ice export or compaction, ocean heat content influencing bottom melt, and late-summer weather patterns that can slow or intensify loss. NSIDC monitoring and updated seasonal forecasts will refine outcomes ahead of the typical early-to-mid September minimum, where historical analogs and current thickness data support the current market distribution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$68,025End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum extent near 14.29 million sq km and below-average July conditions, with Arctic-wide coverage at 6.62 million sq km on July 30 and further decline to about 6.2 million by mid-August, have elevated implied probabilities for a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million sq km range. Key variables include persistent warmth along the Atlantic margin accelerating melt, variable wind-driven ice export or compaction, ocean heat content influencing bottom melt, and late-summer weather patterns that can slow or intensify loss. NSIDC monitoring and updated seasonal forecasts will refine outcomes ahead of the typical early-to-mid September minimum, where historical analogs and current thickness data support the current market distribution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,025End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum extent near 14.29 million sq km and below-average July conditions, with Arctic-wide coverage at 6.62 million sq km on July 30 and further decline to about 6.2 million by mid-August, have elevated implied probabilities for a September minimum in the 4.4–4.8 million sq km range. Key variables include persistent warmth along the Atlantic margin accelerating melt, variable wind-driven ice export or compaction, ocean heat content influencing bottom melt, and late-summer weather patterns that can slow or intensify loss. NSIDC monitoring and updated seasonal forecasts will refine outcomes ahead of the typical early-to-mid September minimum, where historical analogs and current thickness data support the current market distribution amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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