Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 71.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US according to NOAA records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS seismic monitoring (largest 2026 event a M7.4 off Japan in April), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (47 minor eruptions reported), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst or impact per NASA CNEOS. These rare phenomena—US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade, VEI ≥6 roughly every 5–10 years—bolster the odds, alongside NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane season forecast amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning from weak La Niña. Peak risks persist through November, with model updates from the National Hurricane Center potentially influencing sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$217,278 Vol.
$217,278 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$217,278 Vol.
$217,278 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 71.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US according to NOAA records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS seismic monitoring (largest 2026 event a M7.4 off Japan in April), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (47 minor eruptions reported), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst or impact per NASA CNEOS. These rare phenomena—US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade, VEI ≥6 roughly every 5–10 years—bolster the odds, alongside NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane season forecast amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning from weak La Niña. Peak risks persist through November, with model updates from the National Hurricane Center potentially influencing sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$217,278End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 71.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US according to NOAA records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS seismic monitoring (largest 2026 event a M7.4 off Japan in April), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (47 minor eruptions reported), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst or impact per NASA CNEOS. These rare phenomena—US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade, VEI ≥6 roughly every 5–10 years—bolster the odds, alongside NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane season forecast amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning from weak La Niña. Peak risks persist through November, with model updates from the National Hurricane Center potentially influencing sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$217,278End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 71.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US according to NOAA records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS seismic monitoring (largest 2026 event a M7.4 off Japan in April), no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (47 minor eruptions reported), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst or impact per NASA CNEOS. These rare phenomena—US Cat 5 landfalls averaging under once per decade, VEI ≥6 roughly every 5–10 years—bolster the odds, alongside NOAA's below-normal Atlantic hurricane season forecast amid neutral ENSO conditions transitioning from weak La Niña. Peak risks persist through November, with model updates from the National Hurricane Center potentially influencing sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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