Recent Taxpayers' Union-Curia polling from May 3-7 positions New Zealand First at 11.7% party vote in third place under the MMP system, behind a tight Labour (31.9%)-National (30%) race but ahead of Greens (9.7%) and ACT (6.5%), driving trader consensus to 57.5% implied probability for third. This follows NZ First's April surge to 15% in Talbot Mills and consistent double-digits in Roy Morgan and others, while ACT tumbles 2.5 points amid coalition strains and Greens hold below 12% after earlier declines. With the November 7 election approaching, minor party dynamics hinge on turnout in battleground electorates and budget fallout, keeping the race competitive for Greens and ACT.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand First Party 45%
Green Party 29%
National Party 7%
ACT New Zealand 6.9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 7, 2026
New Zealand First Party
53%
Green Party
26%
National Party
7%
ACT New Zealand
7%
Te Pāti Māori
1%
Labour Party
1%
New Zealand First Party 45%
Green Party 29%
National Party 7%
ACT New Zealand 6.9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 7, 2026
New Zealand First Party
$235 Vol.
53%
Green Party
$318 Vol.
26%
National Party
$132 Vol.
7%
ACT New Zealand
$273 Vol.
7%
Te Pāti Māori
$232 Vol.
1%
Labour Party
$367 Vol.
1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent Taxpayers' Union-Curia polling from May 3-7 positions New Zealand First at 11.7% party vote in third place under the MMP system, behind a tight Labour (31.9%)-National (30%) race but ahead of Greens (9.7%) and ACT (6.5%), driving trader consensus to 57.5% implied probability for third. This follows NZ First's April surge to 15% in Talbot Mills and consistent double-digits in Roy Morgan and others, while ACT tumbles 2.5 points amid coalition strains and Greens hold below 12% after earlier declines. With the November 7 election approaching, minor party dynamics hinge on turnout in battleground electorates and budget fallout, keeping the race competitive for Greens and ACT.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,557End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent Taxpayers' Union-Curia polling from May 3-7 positions New Zealand First at 11.7% party vote in third place under the MMP system, behind a tight Labour (31.9%)-National (30%) race but ahead of Greens (9.7%) and ACT (6.5%), driving trader consensus to 57.5% implied probability for third. This follows NZ First's April surge to 15% in Talbot Mills and consistent double-digits in Roy Morgan and others, while ACT tumbles 2.5 points amid coalition strains and Greens hold below 12% after earlier declines. With the November 7 election approaching, minor party dynamics hinge on turnout in battleground electorates and budget fallout, keeping the race competitive for Greens and ACT.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$1,557End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Taxpayers' Union-Curia polling from May 3-7 positions New Zealand First at 11.7% party vote in third place under the MMP system, behind a tight Labour (31.9%)-National (30%) race but ahead of Greens (9.7%) and ACT (6.5%), driving trader consensus to 57.5% implied probability for third. This follows NZ First's April surge to 15% in Talbot Mills and consistent double-digits in Roy Morgan and others, while ACT tumbles 2.5 points amid coalition strains and Greens hold below 12% after earlier declines. With the November 7 election approaching, minor party dynamics hinge on turnout in battleground electorates and budget fallout, keeping the race competitive for Greens and ACT.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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