Recent polling shows the Green Party reaching a record 16% support in the latest 1News-Verian survey, narrowing the gap with New Zealand First amid broader declines for the two largest parties ahead of the November 7 election. This surge, combined with NZ First holding near 9-10% and ACT at 8-11% in aggregates, keeps the contest for third place on party vote tightly balanced between the Greens and NZ First. The MMP system amplifies minor-party dynamics, with undecided voters at 13% and coalition negotiations likely influencing strategic voting in the final weeks. Late campaign events, economic data releases, or shifts in turnout among specific voter blocs could widen separation, while sustained Green momentum risks overtaking NZ First depending on final-week polling trends.