Recent polling aggregates for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show National and Labour locked near 30% support under the MMP system, leaving Greens and New Zealand First as the primary contenders for third place in party vote share. Greens have held or edged higher in multiple surveys, often around 10-13%, while New Zealand First has slipped amid internal coalition tensions and recent leadership scrutiny around Prime Minister Luxon. ACT remains competitive but trails in most aggregates, and the rising Opportunity Party draws from centrist voters without yet displacing the established smaller parties from the third-position race. Traders assign Greens the lead probability because consistent survey positioning and limited downside risks outweigh New Zealand First’s historical volatility in late-campaign periods.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew Zealand Election: 3rd Place
New Zealand Election: 3rd Place
Green Party 54%
New Zealand First Party 40%
ACT New Zealand 4.5%
National Party 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 7, 2026
Green Party
54%
New Zealand First Party
40%
ACT New Zealand
4%
National Party
2%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Labour Party
<1%
Green Party 54%
New Zealand First Party 40%
ACT New Zealand 4.5%
National Party 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 7, 2026
Green Party
$2,659 Vol.
54%
New Zealand First Party
$2,958 Vol.
40%
ACT New Zealand
$641 Vol.
4%
National Party
$355 Vol.
2%
Te Pāti Māori
$714 Vol.
<1%
Labour Party
$1,005 Vol.
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling aggregates for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show National and Labour locked near 30% support under the MMP system, leaving Greens and New Zealand First as the primary contenders for third place in party vote share. Greens have held or edged higher in multiple surveys, often around 10-13%, while New Zealand First has slipped amid internal coalition tensions and recent leadership scrutiny around Prime Minister Luxon. ACT remains competitive but trails in most aggregates, and the rising Opportunity Party draws from centrist voters without yet displacing the established smaller parties from the third-position race. Traders assign Greens the lead probability because consistent survey positioning and limited downside risks outweigh New Zealand First’s historical volatility in late-campaign periods.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$8,332End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling aggregates for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show National and Labour locked near 30% support under the MMP system, leaving Greens and New Zealand First as the primary contenders for third place in party vote share. Greens have held or edged higher in multiple surveys, often around 10-13%, while New Zealand First has slipped amid internal coalition tensions and recent leadership scrutiny around Prime Minister Luxon. ACT remains competitive but trails in most aggregates, and the rising Opportunity Party draws from centrist voters without yet displacing the established smaller parties from the third-position race. Traders assign Greens the lead probability because consistent survey positioning and limited downside risks outweigh New Zealand First’s historical volatility in late-campaign periods.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$8,332End Date
Nov 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show National and Labour locked near 30% support under the MMP system, leaving Greens and New Zealand First as the primary contenders for third place in party vote share. Greens have held or edged higher in multiple surveys, often around 10-13%, while New Zealand First has slipped amid internal coalition tensions and recent leadership scrutiny around Prime Minister Luxon. ACT remains competitive but trails in most aggregates, and the rising Opportunity Party draws from centrist voters without yet displacing the established smaller parties from the third-position race. Traders assign Greens the lead probability because consistent survey positioning and limited downside risks outweigh New Zealand First’s historical volatility in late-campaign periods.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
37%
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