José Maria Neves leads trader consensus at 67.5% as the PAICV incumbent entering the November 15, 2026, presidential vote, bolstered by his party’s May 2026 parliamentary victory that delivered a National Assembly majority and positioned Francisco Carvalho as prime minister-designate. This outcome reflects the party’s strengthened organizational base and continuity in Cape Verde’s semi-presidential system. Opposition figures from the MpD, including Janine Lélis and Joana Rosa, along with lower-probability names such as Milton Paiva, Joana Rosa, and Casimiro de Pina, trail significantly, as no major late-campaign shifts or cross-party endorsements have altered the balance. Scheduled first-round balloting and potential runoff dynamics remain the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCape Verde Presidential Election Winner
Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner
José Maria Neves 68%
Milton Paiva 9%
Janine Lélis 7%
Casimiro de Pina 6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 15, 2026
José Maria Neves
68%
Milton Paiva
9%
Janine Lélis
7%
Casimiro de Pina
6%
Péricles Tavares
6%
Fernando Delgado
6%
Joana Rosa
7%
José Maria Neves 68%
Milton Paiva 9%
Janine Lélis 7%
Casimiro de Pina 6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 15, 2026
José Maria Neves
$1,338 Vol.
68%
Milton Paiva
$295 Vol.
9%
Janine Lélis
$249 Vol.
7%
Casimiro de Pina
$258 Vol.
6%
Péricles Tavares
$287 Vol.
6%
Fernando Delgado
$258 Vol.
6%
Joana Rosa
$294 Vol.
7%
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).José Maria Neves leads trader consensus at 67.5% as the PAICV incumbent entering the November 15, 2026, presidential vote, bolstered by his party’s May 2026 parliamentary victory that delivered a National Assembly majority and positioned Francisco Carvalho as prime minister-designate. This outcome reflects the party’s strengthened organizational base and continuity in Cape Verde’s semi-presidential system. Opposition figures from the MpD, including Janine Lélis and Joana Rosa, along with lower-probability names such as Milton Paiva, Joana Rosa, and Casimiro de Pina, trail significantly, as no major late-campaign shifts or cross-party endorsements have altered the balance. Scheduled first-round balloting and potential runoff dynamics remain the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust implied probabilities.
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ET
Volume
$2,979End Date
Nov 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).José Maria Neves leads trader consensus at 67.5% as the PAICV incumbent entering the November 15, 2026, presidential vote, bolstered by his party’s May 2026 parliamentary victory that delivered a National Assembly majority and positioned Francisco Carvalho as prime minister-designate. This outcome reflects the party’s strengthened organizational base and continuity in Cape Verde’s semi-presidential system. Opposition figures from the MpD, including Janine Lélis and Joana Rosa, along with lower-probability names such as Milton Paiva, Joana Rosa, and Casimiro de Pina, trail significantly, as no major late-campaign shifts or cross-party endorsements have altered the balance. Scheduled first-round balloting and potential runoff dynamics remain the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust implied probabilities.
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Volume
$2,979End Date
Nov 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...José Maria Neves leads trader consensus at 67.5% as the PAICV incumbent entering the November 15, 2026, presidential vote, bolstered by his party’s May 2026 parliamentary victory that delivered a National Assembly majority and positioned Francisco Carvalho as prime minister-designate. This outcome reflects the party’s strengthened organizational base and continuity in Cape Verde’s semi-presidential system. Opposition figures from the MpD, including Janine Lélis and Joana Rosa, along with lower-probability names such as Milton Paiva, Joana Rosa, and Casimiro de Pina, trail significantly, as no major late-campaign shifts or cross-party endorsements have altered the balance. Scheduled first-round balloting and potential runoff dynamics remain the primary near-term catalysts that could adjust implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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