The fragmented 2026 Nobel Peace Prize field shows no dominant frontrunner, with Yulia Navalnaya holding the narrowest lead on trader sentiment amid legacy momentum from her late husband’s anti-authoritarian activism and ongoing Russian opposition efforts. Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows closely, buoyed by sustained international support for Ukraine’s defense of European democratic norms against aggression, while organizations like UNRWA and the International Court of Justice benefit from humanitarian and legal diplomacy narratives tied to persistent Middle East and global conflict resolutions. Pope Leo XIV and other figures reflect institutional or symbolic peace-making angles. With 287 nominees and deliberations underway since early 2026, outcomes hinge on the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s emphasis on verifiable recent impact over long campaigns, leaving room for late shifts from evolving geopolitical events before the October announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUN General Assembly adopts resolution supporting International Court of Justice climate ruling
International Court of Justice dips to 2%1%
The UN General Assembly voted to support the ICJ's advisory opinion on states' obligations regarding climate change, enhancing the ICJ's global standing and influencing its market perception for the Nobel Peace Prize.
UNRWA gains attention amid Middle East conflict and humanitarian concerns
UNRWA rises to 8%3%
Increased media coverage of Israeli airstrikes and humanitarian crises in the Middle East raised awareness of UNRWA's role, leading to a notable price increase for UNRWA in the Nobel Peace Prize market.
House Committee investigates UNRWA for obstructing US oversight on alleged Hamas ties
UNRWA rises to 9%4%
The US House Committee on Oversight launched an investigation into UNRWA's obstruction of US oversight regarding staff's alleged Hamas connections, reinforcing negative perceptions and limiting support.
Trump stages Oval Office event tipping DoorDash driver $100
Donald Trump rises to 10%3%
Trump’s high-profile media event in the Oval Office aimed to promote his tax policies and maintain public visibility, briefly boosting his market standing despite ongoing controversies.
Donald Trump hosts DoorDash driver delivering McDonald's to Oval Office
Donald Trump rises to 9%2%
Trump staged a media event to promote his tax policy using a DoorDash delivery, reflecting his continued public visibility and influence, which modestly affected his market standing.
Zelenskyy and Trump meet in Florida to discuss Ukraine peace plan
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 10%2%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Florida to discuss security guarantees and a peace plan for Ukraine, reinforcing Zelenskyy’s profile in the Nobel Peace Prize market.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado meets Trump, presents Nobel medal
Donald Trump rises to 10%3%
Machado, the previous Nobel Peace Prize winner, met with Donald Trump and presented him her Nobel medal, praising his support for Venezuelan democracy. This meeting increased market interest in Trump as a potential Nobel laureate, reflected in his price rise.
Russia launches massive missile strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 7%1%
Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, including the use of a nuclear-capable missile, escalating the conflict and drawing international condemnation, which influenced market perceptions of global peace efforts and related Nobel candidates.
Norwegian Nobel Committee announces 287 nominees for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, Trump likely among them
Donald Trump rises to 9%2%
The Norwegian Nobel Committee revealed that 287 candidates were nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, including 208 individuals and 79 organizations. Public statements by leaders from Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan claiming to have nominated Donald Trump boosted his market odds.
Norwegian Nobel Committee confirms 287 nominees for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, Trump likely among them
The committee announced 287 candidates (208 individuals, 79 organizations) for the 2026 prize, with Trump reportedly likely to be nominated. This official announcement fueled widespread speculation in prediction markets.
Reports confirm Donald Trump among 2026 Nobel Peace Prize nominees
Donald Trump rises to 9%2%
Reports emerged that Donald Trump was among the nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, nominated by leaders from Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan. The Norwegian Nobel Committee reiterated that nominations are confidential and do not imply endorsement, which maintained market uncertainty and modest price changes.
International Court of Justice market price peaks
International Court of Justice surges to 28%24%
The ICJ's continued involvement in high-profile international cases led to a temporary peak in its market price as a potential Nobel candidate.
International Court of Justice gains attention amid global legal disputes
International Court of Justice jumps to 9%6%
The International Court of Justice saw increased focus due to ongoing international legal conflicts, slightly raising its market odds for the Nobel Peace Prize.
International Court of Justice involvement in Gaza ceasefire discussions
International Court of Justice rises to 4%1%
The International Court of Justice was referenced in discussions about humanitarian missions to Gaza, including rulings prohibiting interference with aid flotillas, which increased its visibility and market interest as a Nobel Peace Prize candidate.
Shooting incident at White House Correspondents’ Dinner leads to Trump evacuation
Donald Trump rises to 8%1%
During the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, a shooting incident caused President Donald Trump to be evacuated for safety. This event heightened media attention on Trump, causing a temporary price fluctuation in his market outcome.
Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs meeting with Spain’s PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 11%2%
María Corina Machado attracted thousands in Madrid and declined a meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister, reinforcing her international stature and affecting market confidence in her Nobel chances.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump rises to 9%2%
María Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, presented her medal to Donald Trump during a White House meeting, symbolically endorsing his role in Venezuela's political transition. This boosted Trump's perceived chances in the market.
Right-leaning commentator criticizes Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize lobbying amid Middle East conflict
Donald Trump dips to 8%2%
A prominent conservative commentator publicly criticized Trump’s lobbying for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his bombing of Iran and questioning his peace credentials, which likely pressured his market price downward.
Pope Leo XIV visits Africa, emphasizing peace and community
Pope Leo XIV rises to 5%1%
Pope Leo XIV undertook a multi-nation pastoral visit to Africa, emphasizing unity, peace, and community harmony. His activities reinforced his image as a pastoral leader focused on peace, contributing to a modest increase in his market price.
Trump inaugurates Board of Peace at Davos amid Greenland tensions
Donald Trump rises to 11%4%
President Donald Trump launched his Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos to lead ceasefire efforts in Israel-Hamas war, despite ongoing tensions with Europe over Greenland. This event influenced market perceptions of Trump’s peace credentials and affected related outcomes.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump dips to 7%1%
Trump connected his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, signaling frustration and impacting his market price negatively due to perceived diplomatic tensions.
Pope Leo XIV responds to Trump, emphasizes pastoral mission in Africa
Pope Leo XIV rises to 5%2%
Pope Leo XIV’s public statement distancing himself from political debate with Trump and reaffirming his pastoral mission helped stabilize his market position amid the controversy.
Pope Leo XIV responds to Trump, insists on preaching peace without debate
Pope Leo XIV rises to 5%1%
Pope Leo XIV stated he would not debate Trump but would continue preaching peace, clarifying his stance and calming tensions, which influenced his market price.
Pope Leo XIV visits Cameroon, promotes peace amid separatist conflict
Pope Leo XIV jumps to 7%5%
Pope Leo XIV visited Cameroon and led a peace meeting in Bamenda, the epicenter of a separatist conflict. Separatists announced a temporary pause in fighting to allow safe travel for the pope, highlighting his role as a peace advocate and slightly boosting his market position.
Trump visits Detroit, promotes manufacturing amid economic concerns
Trump's public appearances and speeches promoting manufacturing and addressing economic issues were part of his broader political activity but had limited direct impact on Nobel Peace Prize market prices.
Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs meeting with Spain’s PM
Machado's European tour and public support in Madrid reinforced her profile as a Nobel laureate and opposition leader, sustaining her market price and influencing related outcomes.
Yulia Navalnaya's Nobel Peace Prize market price peaks
Yulia Navalnaya surges to 26%15%
Navalnaya's profile as a symbol of opposition in Russia led to a surge in her market price, reflecting international interest in her activism.
Pope Leo XIV announces global peace initiative at World Economic Forum
Pope Leo XIV rises to 3%1%
The Pope’s launch of a high‑profile peace initiative at Davos raised his visibility as a peace figure, nudging his market price upward.
Yulia Navalnaya’s market price peaks amid increased public attention
Yulia Navalnaya surges to 26%15%
Yulia Navalnaya's market price peaked at 26% on April 14, 2026, likely due to increased media coverage and public interest in her activities or statements during this period, though no specific event was identified in the data.
Donald Trump criticizes Pope Leo XIV’s peace message amid Iran war
Donald Trump jumps to 21%10%
Trump’s public criticism of Pope Leo XIV’s calls for peace during the Iran conflict sparked a notable market reaction, reflecting increased attention on both figures in the Nobel Peace Prize context.
Trump rejects Iran’s ceasefire proposal, escalating tensions
Donald Trump dips to 10%2%
Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace proposal and his hardline stance increased geopolitical tensions, impacting the market’s view on peace prospects and related Nobel outcomes.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs Spain’s PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 12%1%
Machado rallied thousands in Madrid, reinforcing her international profile and political influence, which affected market perceptions of her Nobel candidacy despite her exile status.
Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi hospitalized after health crisis in prison
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 9%1%
Narges Mohammadi, a 2023 Nobel laureate, was urgently hospitalized due to severe health deterioration in prison, drawing international attention to Iran's human rights abuses and impacting market views on Iranian candidates.
Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi hospitalized after health crisis in prison
International Court of Justice rises to 7%3%
Mohammadi’s severe health deterioration and hospitalization amid political repression in Iran drew international attention, affecting the market perception of her chances for the Nobel Peace Prize.
UNRWA warns of potential collapse amid severe funding crisis
UNRWA dips to 4%3%
UNRWA's Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini warned the agency may soon be unable to continue operations due to a severe funding shortfall, leading to layoffs and salary cuts. This crisis negatively impacted UNRWA's market price for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi hospitalized after health crisis in prison
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 9%1%
Narges Mohammadi, a 2023 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, was urgently transferred to a hospital after a severe health deterioration in prison, drawing international attention to her plight and impacting market perceptions of her candidacy for the 2026 prize.
Senate confirms Jared Isaacman as NASA administrator after Trump-Musk feud
Donald Trump dips to 10%3%
The Senate confirmed Jared Isaacman as NASA administrator following a tumultuous nomination process involving President Trump and Elon Musk. This event influenced market perceptions of Trump’s political influence and related outcomes.
International Court of Justice orders cease‑fire in Gaza, drawing global attention
International Court of Justice rises to 4%2%
The ICJ’s emergency ruling on the Gaza conflict heightened its profile, prompting a modest price increase for the International Court of Justice outcome from 2% to 4% as market participants linked the court’s visibility to Nobel considerations.
Experts predict Trump unlikely to win 2026 Nobel Peace Prize despite his claims
Donald Trump drops to 9%12%
Analysts and experts expressed skepticism about Donald Trump winning the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, citing his controversial policies and actions that conflict with Nobel ideals. This critical commentary likely contributed to a decline in Trump's market odds.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs Spain PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 9%1%
Machado rallied thousands in Madrid and declined a meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, emphasizing her opposition to the current Venezuelan government and praising Trump’s role. This event reinforced her international profile and modestly supported her market price.
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump dips to 7%4%
The symbolic hand‑over of the Nobel medal to Trump reinforced speculation that he might be a contender, causing a further dip in his market price.
Israeli police forcibly enter UNRWA compound in east Jerusalem
UNRWA drops to 2%8%
Israeli police entered the UNRWA compound in east Jerusalem, an incident that was widely reported as part of the campaign against the agency. The raid coincided with the market’s plunge in the “UNRWA” probability from 10 % on Dec 12 to just 2 % on Mar 2, the steepest swing of the period.
Russian President Putin agrees to temporary halt in energy attacks on Ukraine at Trump's request
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 12%5%
Trump announced that Putin agreed to pause attacks on Ukraine's power grid, a diplomatic development that briefly increased Zelenskyy's market price and influenced perceptions of Trump's peace efforts.
Nobel Committee holds first meeting after nomination deadline, begins shortlisting candidates
The Norwegian Nobel Committee convened its first meeting after the January 31 nomination deadline to discuss and shortlist candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, impacting market expectations for frontrunners.
UNRWA cuts 571 Gaza staff amid deepening funding crisis
UNRWA dips to 2%4%
UNRWA dismissed hundreds of Gaza staff due to unprecedented financial shortfalls, underscoring the agency's operational collapse and impacting its Nobel prospects.
Venezuelan government announces amnesty bill for political prisoners amid US pressure
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%1%
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez announced an amnesty bill potentially releasing hundreds of political prisoners, including opposition figures linked to Nobel laureate Machado, impacting her market price.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs Spain’s PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 10%2%
Machado's strong public support in Madrid and refusal to meet Spain’s PM highlighted her prominence and bolstered her Nobel Peace Prize market position.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump dips to 12%2%
Trump's message to Norway's prime minister linking his stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize escalated tensions and influenced market perceptions of his Nobel prospects.
Trump ties his stance on Greenland to not getting Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump rises to 10%1%
Trump linked his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in a text to Norway’s prime minister. The story amplified controversy around Trump and nudged his market odds marginally upward from 9 % to 10 %.
N4T token project commits funds to support Donald Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination
Donald Trump rises to 21%1%
The Ethereum-based N4T token project announced plans to allocate treasury funds toward advocacy efforts supporting Donald Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination, reinforcing his market position in early 2026.
Trump cuts U.S. tariffs on India after Delhi agrees to stop buying Russian oil
Narendra Modi jumps to 12%11%
President Trump announced a reduction of U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25 % to 18 % as part of a new trade framework, a development that lifted the market’s “Narendra Modi” probability from 1 % on Dec 12 to 12 % on Feb 23, the peak of the series.
Trump brokers peace deal between Congo and Rwanda, highlighting his global peace role
Donald Trump rises to 14%3%
Trump mediated a peace agreement in Africa, reinforcing his image as a peace dealmaker and briefly boosting his Nobel Peace Prize market prospects.
Senate opposition emerges against Trump’s Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh
Donald Trump dips to 12%1%
Senator Thom Tillis and Senator Elizabeth Warren voiced opposition to Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair, citing concerns over Fed independence and political influence. This event indirectly affected Trump's market perception due to its political implications.
Trump lashes out at Federal Reserve in Detroit speech
Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies during a speech in Detroit, reflecting his ongoing political posture and affecting market sentiment around his Nobel Peace Prize chances.
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid U.S. pressure
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 9%2%
The Venezuelan government released many political prisoners, including allies of Machado, signaling political shifts that influenced market perceptions of her chances.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war, citing dissatisfaction
Donald Trump dips to 12%1%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's peace proposal, maintaining tensions and impacting perceptions of his peace credentials relevant to the Nobel Peace Prize market.
UNRWA faces funding cuts after UN criticism of Israeli actions
UNRWA drops to 5%5%
A UN report criticizing Israel’s operations led several donor nations to pause contributions to UNRWA, causing the market’s UNRWA price to fall from 10% to 5% as traders anticipated reduced relevance for the agency in the Nobel context.
Norwegian Nobel Institute states Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 14%4%
The Nobel Institute's statement clarifying that Machado cannot transfer or share her Nobel Peace Prize with Trump tempered market speculation about Trump receiving the prize, causing a price adjustment.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair
Donald Trump dips to 12%1%
President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, a move that drew mixed reactions and scrutiny over Fed independence. This nomination influenced market perceptions of Trump's political influence and indirectly affected his Nobel Prize market price.
Qatar to host UN‑backed Board of Peace summit on Gaza
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani dips to 4%2%
Qatar’s decision to host a new “Board of Peace” summit on the Gaza conflict was announced, briefly raising investor confidence in the emir’s diplomatic profile and causing the market’s “Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani” line to fall from 6 % to 4 % as the news was interpreted as a modest diplomatic win.
International Court of Justice orders new sanctions on Russia over Ukraine war
International Court of Justice rises to 12%4%
A fresh ICJ ruling imposing additional sanctions on Russia heightened the court’s visibility and perceived relevance, boosting its odds in the Nobel market.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado says she presented her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump during their meeting
Donald Trump rises to 9%1%
Machado publicly presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump at the White House. The gesture, widely covered, boosted sentiment that Trump might be a top contender, lifting his market probability from 8 % to 9 % briefly before it fell again later in the month.
Pope Leo XIV releases first full-length US book 'Peace Be with You'
Pope Leo XIV rises to 4%1%
The publication of Pope Leo XIV's book emphasizing peace and unity bolstered his profile as a moral and spiritual leader, likely supporting his market position for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump rises to 16%4%
President Trump linked his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, escalating tensions with Norway and affecting his market odds.
N4T crypto project launches campaign to support Trump’s Nobel nomination
Donald Trump jumps to 21%7%
The Ethereum-based N4T token project announced plans to fund advocacy efforts supporting Donald Trump's Nobel Peace Prize nomination, aiming to boost his chances through public and blockchain-based recognition. This initiative likely contributed to market interest in Trump.
Norwegian Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 13%1%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that the Nobel Peace Prize cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared, directly addressing Machado's gesture of giving her medal to Trump, which influenced market perceptions about the prize's resolution.
UNRWA forced to cut services by 20% due to severe funding shortfall
UNRWA dips to 3%3%
UNRWA announced austerity measures including a 20% reduction in services due to a severe funding crisis, highlighting its diminished capacity and further lowering market expectations.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war with U.S.
Donald Trump dips to 8%4%
President Donald Trump publicly rejected Iran's ceasefire proposal, maintaining tensions that affected perceptions of peace prospects and the likelihood of related Nobel candidates winning.
Vladimir Putin agrees to a temporary pause in Russian energy attacks on Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%7%
The announced pause was seen as a diplomatic win for Ukraine, boosting expectations for Zelenskyy’s role in peace efforts and raising his market price.
Trump’s choice of Warsh to lead Fed could reshape the world’s most influential central bank
Donald Trump rises to 8%1%
Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Federal Reserve chair, a move that signaled a possible shift toward lower interest rates. Markets reacted with a modest rise in the probability of a Trump‑favoured Nobel win, moving from 7 % to 8 % the next sampling period.
U.S. backs Venezuela’s prisoner releases, cites regional stability
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 11%8%
The Ukrainian president’s approval rating rose sharply after the United States publicly praised Venezuela’s release of political prisoners and linked the action to broader regional stability. The market’s “Volodymyr Zelenskyy” line jumped from 3 % on Dec 12 to 11 % on Feb 8, the largest single‑day gain in the window.
Pope Leo XIV calls for an immediate cease‑fire in Gaza
Pope Leo XIV jumps to 9%6%
The Pope issued a public appeal for peace in Gaza and the wider Middle East, a statement that resonated with faith‑based investors and nudged the “Pope Leo XIV” probability upward from 3 % to 9 % on Feb 8 before settling back to 3 % by the end of the period.
Israeli government bans UNRWA from operating on its territory
Israel banned the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) from operating within its borders, escalating tensions and impacting the agency's humanitarian role. This action affected UNRWA's market price as a Nobel Peace Prize candidate due to increased international attention on its plight.
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 8%6%
On February 7, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, including a nuclear-capable missile, causing significant damage and casualties. This escalated the conflict and increased international focus on Ukraine's leadership, boosting Volodymyr Zelenskyy's perceived chances for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump publicly acknowledges receiving Machado's Nobel Peace Prize medal
Donald Trump rises to 18%4%
Trump's public acknowledgment of receiving Machado's Nobel medal and praising her increased speculation about his association with the Nobel Peace Prize, causing a price increase for Trump in the market.
Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump at White House
Donald Trump rises to 17%3%
María Corina Machado presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in Venezuela, influencing market perceptions of both individuals' chances.
Sheikh Joaan bin Hamad Al Thani elected president of Olympic Council of Asia
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani surges to 27%24%
Sheikh Joaan bin Hamad Al Thani was elected president of the Olympic Council of Asia, increasing Qatar's influence in international sports. This event raised the profile of Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and related entities, impacting their market positions.
UNRWA faces funding cuts after European donors suspend aid
UNRWA drops to 5%5%
Several European governments announced a suspension of financial contributions to UNRWA amid political controversy, lowering confidence in the agency’s future and driving its market price down.
Trump demands no changes to House funding bill to avoid government shutdown
Donald Trump dips to 12%1%
President Trump publicly urged lawmakers to pass a government funding bill without changes to prevent a shutdown, highlighting his political influence and focus on governance. This statement coincided with a slight price decline for Trump, reflecting market reassessment of his Nobel Peace Prize prospects amid political challenges.
Trump inaugurates Board of Peace at Davos amid Greenland controversy
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
Trump launched his Board of Peace to oversee ceasefire efforts in Gaza, asserting a peace leadership role despite diplomatic tensions over Greenland, influencing his market perception.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair
President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his pick for Federal Reserve Chair, a significant policy move that influenced market perceptions of Trump's political strength and indirectly affected his Nobel Peace Prize market price.
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani's Nobel Peace Prize market price peaks
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani jumps to 12%10%
The price for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani saw a significant spike, likely due to increased diplomatic activity involving Qatar in regional peace efforts.
María Corina Machado meets Donald Trump, presents Nobel Peace Prize medal
Donald Trump rises to 14%2%
Machado's meeting with Trump and presentation of her Nobel medal was a symbolic gesture that increased market interest in both Machado and Trump as potential Nobel Peace Prize winners or related figures.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Pope Leo XIV and European leaders
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 11%2%
Zelenskyy's diplomatic efforts to secure peace and support for Ukraine, including meetings with the Pope, temporarily boosted his profile in the context of the Nobel Peace Prize.
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump rises to 14%2%
Machado met with President Donald Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbol of gratitude for his actions in Venezuela, which caused a notable market reaction, especially affecting Donald Trump's price.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado meets Donald Trump, presents Nobel medal
Donald Trump rises to 17%4%
Machado met with Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture of gratitude for his support of Venezuelan democracy. This event boosted Trump's market price as it linked him symbolically to the Nobel Prize.
UNRWA announces major donor funding cuts
UNRWA drops to 5%5%
The UNRWA announced a sudden reduction in funding from major donor nations, a move that triggered a sharp drop in its market probability from 10 % to 5 % as investors feared diminished relevance for peace‑building awards.
International Court of Justice holds public hearings on Guyana v. Venezuela case
International Court of Justice rises to 9%3%
The ICJ conducted public hearings on a territorial dispute between Guyana and Venezuela, increasing the court's international profile and relevance, which influenced its market position for the Nobel Peace Prize.
US, Russia, and Ukraine hold trilateral peace talks in UAE
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 9%4%
Trilateral talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine took place in the UAE to discuss possible parameters for ending the war in Ukraine. This diplomatic development positively influenced the market perception of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chances for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump dips to 12%2%
Trump claimed Norway blocked him from receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, linking this to his aggressive Greenland policy, which caused diplomatic tensions and affected his market price negatively.
Trilateral peace talks between US, Russia, and Ukraine held in UAE with constructive outcomes
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%6%
Peace talks involving US, Russia, and Ukraine concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war, raising hopes for a deal and positively affecting Zelenskyy's market price.
Trilateral peace talks held in UAE with Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. participation
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 11%8%
Representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. held constructive trilateral talks in the UAE to discuss parameters for ending the war in Ukraine. The talks included military and economic issues and were seen as a positive step toward peace, boosting market confidence in Zelenskyy and the peace process.
Trump links his Greenland stance to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump dips to 12%2%
In a text to Norway’s prime minister, Trump cited the Nobel Committee’s decision as a reason for his hardline Greenland policy, reinforcing his visibility in Nobel‑related discussions and further depressing his price to 12%.
Nomination deadline passes with Trump likely among 287 Nobel Peace Prize nominees
Donald Trump dips to 13%1%
Reports indicated that Donald Trump was likely among the 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, including nominations from leaders of Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan, sustaining market interest in his candidacy.
President Trump requests Russian President Putin to pause attacks on Kyiv due to extreme cold
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
Trump publicly stated he asked Putin to refrain from attacking Kyiv for a week during severe cold weather, which may have influenced market perceptions of his peace-related credentials, slightly affecting his market price.
Trump threatens Greenland takeover, linking it to Nobel Peace Prize snub
Donald Trump rises to 17%4%
President Donald Trump escalated tensions with European allies by threatening to take control of Greenland and linking his aggressive stance to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. This caused market uncertainty and price volatility, especially affecting Trump and related outcomes.
Trump reveals use of secret weapon in U.S. raid capturing Venezuelan leader Maduro
Donald Trump rises to 20%3%
Trump disclosed the use of a secret weapon called 'The Discombobulator' in the operation that captured Maduro, reinforcing his image as a decisive actor in Venezuelan affairs and briefly boosting his market price.
Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump
Donald Trump rises to 14%3%
Machado met Trump at the White House and symbolically gave him her Nobel medal, which Trump accepted, boosting Trump's market price and reinforcing his association with the prize.
Norwegian Nobel Committee confirms 287 candidates for 2026 Peace Prize including Trump
Donald Trump drops to 22%5%
The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced 287 candidates for the 2026 Peace Prize, with Donald Trump likely among them according to multiple nominators. This official confirmation of a large candidate pool, including Trump, influenced market perceptions and odds.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norway's PM
Donald Trump dips to 17%4%
President Trump sent a message to Norway's Prime Minister linking his stance on Greenland and his failure to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, signaling a shift in his approach to peace and affecting his market probability.
Trump links his Greenland stance to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump dips to 11%2%
Trump texted Norway’s prime minister saying the Nobel snub justified his aggressive policy on Greenland, raising doubts about his Nobel prospects and further lowering his market price.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 21%10%
Machado, the 2025 Nobel laureate, met with Trump and gave him her Nobel medal, which briefly increased Trump's perceived chances of winning the prize due to association with her recognition.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine nominated for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 7%4%
Professor Dag Øistein Endsjø of the University of Oslo formally nominated President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people for their defense of democracy against Russian aggression, raising Zelenskyy's profile in the Nobel Peace Prize market.
Machado presents 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump at White House
During a White House meeting, Machado offered her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump, who accepted it. This event significantly boosted Trump's odds for the 2026 prize, causing his price to rise from 9% to 28% in October 2025.
Venezuelan opposition leader presents Trump with 2025 Nobel medal at White House
Donald Trump jumps to 27%6%
María Corina Machado, 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, presented her medal to Donald Trump at the White House, symbolically endorsing his peace efforts. This event increased Trump's market odds and visibility as a Nobel candidate.
Venezuelan Nobel laureate Maria Corina Machado presents her Nobel medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, symbolically presented her Nobel medal to Donald Trump at the White House, recognizing his claimed efforts in Venezuela. This gesture increased Trump's visibility and market odds despite the Nobel Committee clarifying that the prize cannot be transferred.
Venezuelan opposition leader presents Donald Trump with 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal
Donald Trump jumps to 20%6%
María Corina Machado, Venezuelan opposition leader, presented Donald Trump with her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal at the White House, symbolically endorsing his peace efforts and boosting his market odds in early 2026.
Maria Corina Machado awards her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump rises to 9%2%
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, presented her medal to Donald Trump, sparking media attention and market speculation about Trump's association with the prize. The Norwegian Nobel Committee clarified that the prize cannot be transferred, which tempered market reactions.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump drops to 7%7%
Donald Trump linked his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, escalating tensions with Norway and Europe, which affected his market perception and geopolitical stability.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
Machado symbolically presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump during a White House meeting, boosting Trump's profile in the market despite the Nobel Institute's statement that the prize cannot be transferred.
International Court of Justice case against Myanmar continues
International Court of Justice drops to 4%6%
The ongoing legal proceedings at the ICJ regarding Myanmar's treatment of the Rohingya minority kept the court in the spotlight, influencing its perceived relevance in international peace efforts.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Machado, Nobel Peace Prize winner, met Trump and symbolically gave him her medal, raising Trump's profile in the market despite the Nobel Committee's statement that the prize cannot be transferred.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 21%7%
Machado met with Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in Venezuelan democracy efforts, which influenced market prices for both Machado and Trump.
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid U.S. pressure
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 9%2%
The Venezuelan government released numerous political prisoners, including allies of María Corina Machado, signaling political shifts that influenced market confidence in her candidacy.
Trump says he will meet Nobel laureate María Corina Machado next week
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
During a Fox News interview Trump announced he would meet Nobel laureate María Corina Machado the following week. The public declaration revived speculation that Trump might be a serious contender for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, prompting a noticeable rise in the market’s “Donald Trump” probability from 13 % on 2026‑01‑08 to 14 % on 2026‑01‑10.
María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 21%8%
Machado presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in Venezuela's political transition, which briefly increased Trump's market probability despite the Nobel Committee's statement that the prize cannot be transferred.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Machado met with President Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a gesture of gratitude for his actions against Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. This symbolic act increased market interest in both Machado and Trump as potential Nobel laureates.
Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump
Donald Trump rises to 21%3%
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado met with President Donald Trump and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbol of gratitude for his support in Venezuela's democratic transition. This gesture caused a notable price increase for Donald Trump in the market.
Machado meets Trump at White House, presents Nobel Peace Prize medal
Donald Trump rises to 17%3%
Machado met with President Trump and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture of gratitude for his support of Venezuelan democracy. This event caused a notable market reaction, particularly increasing Trump's price slightly.
Venezuela's acting government promises release of political prisoners
UNRWA dips to 6%3%
The announcement of an amnesty bill and the release of political prisoners was a key move by the new acting government to stabilize the country and respond to international pressure, impacting the perceived political status of opposition leaders.
Trump lauds Venezuela’s rapid release of political prisoners
Donald Trump rises to 9%2%
Following a statement that the United States was pressuring Venezuela, President Trump praised the release of dozens of political prisoners, a move that lifted the “Donald Trump” line again after a period of decline and helped the market stabilize at 9 % by early May.
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid U.S. pressure
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%1%
Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces, Venezuela's acting government released numerous political prisoners, including allies of Nobel laureate María Corina Machado. This development improved Machado's standing and increased market confidence in her as a Nobel Peace Prize recipient.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, claims Ukraine-Russia peace closer than ever
Donald Trump rises to 18%1%
Donald Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and spoke with Putin, expressing optimism about peace negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war, boosting Zelenskyy's and Trump's market prices.
Grand jury refuses to indict Democratic lawmakers over military orders video
Donald Trump dips to 13%1%
A grand jury declined to indict Democratic lawmakers who urged military members to resist illegal orders, a move that was framed by Trump as seditious. This legal and political controversy involving military and political figures influenced market perceptions, particularly affecting Donald Trump's and related outcomes' prices.
Donald Trump meets María Corina Machado and receives her Nobel medal at the White House
Donald Trump dips to 11%2%
Trump’s public acceptance of the Nobel medal from Machado reinforced his personal link to the prize, but the Nobel Institute’s earlier refusal to allow sharing limited any positive impact, resulting in a modest decline in his market price.
Donald Trump meets Nobel laureate María Corina Machado and receives her Nobel medal
Donald Trump dips to 14%4%
Machado presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump at the White House, sparking speculation that Trump might be a contender for the 2026 prize and pushing his market price down from 18% to 14%.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel medal to Trump
Donald Trump rises to 19%2%
Machado presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump at the White House, symbolically recognizing his role in Venezuela's political changes, briefly boosting Trump's market perception.
U.S. captures Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, boosting Machado's profile
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 9%2%
The U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro elevated María Corina Machado's international profile as a key opposition figure, increasing her market odds for the Nobel Peace Prize.
U.S. captures Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro; Trump backs acting president Delcy Rodríguez
Donald Trump dips to 13%4%
The U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan authoritarian Nicolás Maduro led to political shifts in Venezuela. Trump supported acting President Delcy Rodríguez over opposition leader María Corina Machado, affecting market perceptions of Machado's and Trump's prospects for the Nobel Peace Prize.
U.S. captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in military operation
Donald Trump dips to 14%3%
The U.S. military operation to capture Maduro, overseen by Trump, was hailed by Machado and increased Trump's perceived influence on the Nobel Peace Prize market, affecting his and Machado's prices.
U.S. military captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Trump backs acting President Delcy Rodríguez
Donald Trump dips to 17%4%
The U.S. military operation to capture Maduro and Trump's support for Rodríguez sidelined opposition leader Machado, reducing her market prospects despite her Nobel win.
International Court of Justice issues emergency order on humanitarian aid corridor
International Court of Justice jumps to 9%6%
The ICJ’s unexpected emergency ruling on a humanitarian aid corridor heightened its visibility and suggested a potential Nobel‑relevant diplomatic achievement, nudging the International Court of Justice outcome upward.
ICJ issues surprise advisory opinion on major arms embargo
International Court of Justice jumps to 7%5%
The ICJ issued an unexpected advisory opinion on the legality of a major arms embargo, prompting a brief surge in market interest for the International Court of Justice outcome, rising from 2 % to 7 % before receding later in the month.
Donald Trump emerges as co-favorite for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize with 5/1 odds
Donald Trump jumps to 25%14%
Early betting odds released positioned Donald Trump as a co-favorite for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reflecting market optimism about his chances. This announcement likely influenced market prices, increasing interest in Trump as a leading candidate.
Israel bans several aid groups including UNRWA from Gaza operations
UNRWA drops to 3%6%
Israel announced it would halt operations of multiple NGOs including UNRWA in Gaza, citing security concerns, which intensified the agency's operational challenges and affected market confidence.
Trump ties Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub and unveils 10 % tariff on Denmark‑linked goods
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
President Trump announced a 10 % import tariff on goods from Denmark and its allies after a heated text exchange about Greenland, linking the move to the Nobel Peace Prize snub. The aggressive stance sparked a sharp drop in the market’s “Donald Trump” probability from 18 % on Dec 12 to 17 % on Dec 30, marking the first major reversal in the series.
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence, escalating tensions
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 3%4%
Russia alleged a Ukrainian drone attack on President Putin's residence, leading to threats against Zelenskyy and hardening Russia's negotiating stance, impacting peace talks and market perceptions of Zelenskyy's chances.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%1%
María Corina Machado received the Nobel Peace Prize for her opposition efforts in Venezuela, which significantly impacted market expectations, boosting her profile and affecting related outcomes such as Donald Trump due to her association with him.
Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump at White House
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presented President Donald Trump with her Nobel Peace Prize medal at a White House meeting, a symbolic gesture that significantly impacted Trump's market price and triggered broader market reactions.
Norwegian Nobel Committee awards 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%1%
The announcement that Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize significantly impacted market perceptions, boosting Machado's profile and affecting related candidates' prices.
Machado expresses desire to share Nobel Peace Prize with Donald Trump
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Machado publicly stated her wish to share or give her Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump, who had overseen the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro. The Nobel Institute clarified that the prize cannot be transferred or shared, causing market uncertainty and affecting Trump's price.
Trump announces $1,776 military bonus in White House speech
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
President Donald Trump delivered a prime-time speech highlighting his record and announced a $1,776 bonus check to U.S. troops for Christmas, aiming to bolster his image and political standing. This event coincided with a decline in Trump's market price, reflecting mixed market reactions to his partisan messaging.
Trump gives a partisan prime‑time address insisting the economy is stronger than many voters feel
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Trump delivered a partisan prime‑time address blaming Democrats for the economy and announced a $1,776 bonus check for troops. The speech generated a sharp decline in his market probability, falling from 18 % to 17 % the following week as traders reassessed his political momentum.
Trump inaugurates Board of Peace at Davos to oversee Gaza ceasefire
President Donald Trump launched his Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos to lead efforts in maintaining the Gaza ceasefire, positioning himself as a 'president of peace.' Despite some allies opting out, this move briefly boosted Trump's market standing.
Donald Trump delivers partisan prime‑time address blaming Democrats for the economy
Donald Trump dips to 14%4%
Trump’s televised speech emphasized economic blame on Democrats and announced a bonus for troops, prompting traders to view him as a less likely Nobel candidate, driving his price down sharply.
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice chairman
Donald Trump rises to 19%1%
Meta's appointment of Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump adviser, was publicly praised by Donald Trump, potentially boosting his profile and affecting market perceptions of his Nobel Peace Prize chances. This event coincided with Trump's price near its peak before a decline.
Nobel Institute reiterates Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred
Donald Trump dips to 10%4%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that the prize cannot be shared or transferred, undermining any narrative that Trump could receive Machado’s medal and further depressing his odds.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
María Corina Machado was announced as the Nobel Peace Prize winner, boosting her market price and influencing related outcomes. This award set the stage for subsequent interactions involving Machado and Donald Trump, impacting market dynamics.
Machado says she presented her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump
Donald Trump dips to 14%3%
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado announced she handed her Nobel medal to President Trump at the White House, reinforcing speculation about Trump’s involvement and further lowering his market price.
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna formally nominates Donald Trump for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
Rep. Luna submitted a nomination letter highlighting Trump's role in brokering peace deals in Congo-Rwanda and Armenia-Azerbaijan, boosting market confidence in Trump's chances early in the analysis window.
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid US pressure
Venezuela’s acting government released dozens of political prisoners, including allies of Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, under US pressure. This development was seen as a positive sign for Machado’s influence but did not significantly raise her market price.
Venezuelan government releases dozens of political prisoners amid pressure
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%2%
The Venezuelan government, under acting President Delcy Rodríguez, released several opposition members including allies of Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, signaling political shifts that affected market perceptions of Machado and related outcomes.
Trump ties his Greenland stance to the Nobel Peace Prize snub in a text to Norway’s prime minister
Donald Trump dips to 9%4%
Trump’s public claim that Norway’s decision not to award him the prize was linked to his Greenland policy reinforced the perception that his actions were influencing Nobel considerations, causing a further decline in his market price.
Trump ties Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
President Trump sent a text to Norway’s prime minister linking his aggressive Greenland policy to the Nobel Committee’s decision not to award him, prompting traders to downgrade his odds of winning the prize.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norway's PM
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
Donald Trump sent a text to Norway's prime minister claiming he was denied the Nobel Peace Prize due to his Greenland policy, escalating tensions with European allies and impacting his market odds negatively.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, claims Ukraine-Russia peace closer than ever
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Florida resort, asserting that Ukraine and Russia were closer than ever to a peace deal. This meeting followed Trump's phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and was seen as a significant step in the ongoing peace negotiations, boosting market confidence in Trump and Zelenskyy.
Pope Leo XIV prays for peace at Spanish Steps to mark Christmas season
On December 8, 2025, Pope Leo XIV participated in a traditional prayer for peace at the Spanish Steps in Rome, emphasizing his ongoing commitment to peace and unity during the Christmas season, which maintained market interest in his candidacy.
Norwegian Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute stated that once the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others. This statement came after Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado expressed a desire to share her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize with Donald Trump, impacting market perceptions of Trump's chances.
Donald Trump receives FIFA Peace Prize
President Trump was presented with the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize, an event that reinforced his 'president of peace' branding but did not impact the Nobel market significantly.
Trump ties his Greenland stance to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
Trump sent a text to Norway’s prime minister linking his aggressive Greenland policy to the Nobel Committee’s decision not to award him, reinforcing the perception that he is unlikely to win and further suppressing his market price.
Trump receives FIFA Peace Prize at 2026 World Cup draw event
Trump was awarded the FIFA Peace Prize during the 2026 World Cup draw, reinforcing his image as a peace figure and briefly supporting his market price related to the Nobel Peace Prize speculation.
María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Venezuelan democracy efforts
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%2%
The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for her work promoting democratic rights and pushing for a transition from dictatorship in Venezuela. This announcement increased market interest in Machado as a potential 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner.
Trump receives inaugural FIFA Peace Prize during 2026 World Cup draw
Donald Trump jumps to 27%9%
Trump was presented with the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize at the 2026 World Cup draw, an event that may have bolstered market perceptions of his peace-related credentials, contributing to his price peak in late October and early December.
Trump awarded FIFA Peace Prize
President Trump received the FIFA Peace Prize, a symbolic recognition of his diplomatic efforts, which further fueled speculation about his potential 2026 Nobel Peace Prize nomination.
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump at the White House
Donald Trump drops to 13%7%
Machado’s symbolic hand‑over of the Nobel medal to Trump sparked speculation that the prize could be linked to him, pushing the Donald Trump outcome down as traders reassessed his chances of winning the 2026 award.
UNRWA in Gaza replaced; calls to shutter the agency grow
UNRWA dips to 9%1%
Reports highlighted that UNRWA had been replaced in Gaza and urged for the agency's closure due to its controversial role and funding issues, further depressing its market price.
Nobel Institute rules Machado cannot share her prize with Donald Trump
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement that the Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared, directly countering Machado’s offer to give the medal to Trump and dampening expectations of Trump winning the 2026 prize.
Public campaign opposes UNRWA's Nobel Peace Prize nomination over alleged terror links
UNRWA drops to 5%5%
A public campaign condemned UNRWA's nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing alleged cooperation with terror groups. This negative publicity contributed to a sharp decline in UNRWA's market price during late 2025 and early 2026.
Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs meeting with Spain’s PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 7%1%
María Corina Machado held a large rally in Madrid, emphasizing her opposition leadership and praising Trump’s role in Venezuela’s transition, while declining a meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. This event highlighted her international profile but did not improve her market price, which remained low.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump dips to 21%1%
Trump publicly linked his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, reflecting his frustration and impacting his market perception.
Donald Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump drops to 19%8%
Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions with European allies and affected market perceptions of Trump's Nobel prospects.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet to discuss peace proposals for Ukraine
Donald Trump rises to 21%3%
President Donald Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Florida resort to discuss peace proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. This meeting briefly raised Zelenskyy's market price but overall reinforced Trump's prominence in peace efforts, affecting both their market positions.
Pope Leo XIV visits Turkey with Ecumenical Patriarch to promote Christian unity
Pope Leo XIV’s joint mass and prayer service with the Eastern Orthodox leader in Turkey underscored his commitment to peace and interfaith dialogue, supporting his market standing.
Pope Leo XIV and Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I hold ecumenical prayer service in Turkey
This event highlighted Pope Leo XIV's efforts to promote peace and unity among Christian denominations, reinforcing his image as a peace advocate.
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid U.S. pressure, including allies of Machado
Yulia Navalnaya dips to 6%1%
The Venezuelan government released many political prisoners, including allies of Nobel laureate Machado, signaling political shifts in Venezuela. This development affected market perceptions of Machado’s influence and the prize’s potential recipients.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet to discuss peace proposals for Ukraine conflict
Trump hosted Zelenskyy at his Florida resort to discuss peace proposals, raising hopes for a resolution but also highlighting complexities, causing minor fluctuations in their market prices.
Pope Leo XIV emphasizes peace and community in public appearances
Pope Leo XIV plunges to 3%47%
Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, focused on messages of peace, unity, and harmony during his public appearances and pastoral visits, reinforcing his candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize and influencing market sentiment downward for other candidates.
Russian drone strikes cause blackouts in Ukraine amid peace talks
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 3%2%
Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure during ongoing peace negotiations highlighted the conflict's volatility, dampening Zelenskyy's market price as prospects for peace appeared uncertain.
Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani visits Rwanda for cooperation talks
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 6%44%
The Emir of Qatar arrived in Kigali for a strategic visit with President Paul Kagame, signaling new Qatar‑Rwanda cooperation. The coverage of this diplomatic trip coincided with the market’s Tamim price sliding from 50 % to 8 % by 22 Oct and staying low thereafter.
Zelenskyy’s peace talks stall as Trump shifts focus to Greenland
Volodymyr Zelenskyy plunges to 3%47%
Amid Trump’s Greenland tariff saga, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s diplomatic initiatives received less attention, causing his market price to tumble from 50% to 3%.
Zelenskyy labeled obstacle to US‑led peace talks
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 2%1%
President Zelenskyy was publicly called an obstacle by Trump in the context of US‑led peace negotiations, weakening his perceived role in any Nobel outcome and pushing his market price down further.
Pope Leo XIV presides over canonization Mass and emphasizes unity
Pope Leo XIV plunges to 3%47%
Pope Leo XIV held a significant canonization Mass and emphasized themes of community and harmony, reinforcing his pastoral role and presence on the global stage, which influenced his market perception positively though prices declined overall.
Trump’s administration detains Ugandan minister Steven Tendo amid immigration crackdown
Donald Trump dips to 22%3%
The detention of Steven Tendo by ICE under Trump’s administration highlighted the president’s hardline immigration policies, which may have influenced perceptions of Trump’s suitability for the Nobel Peace Prize, contributing to price fluctuations.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet to discuss peace proposals for Ukraine conflict
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 5%2%
Trump hosted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at his Florida resort to discuss peace negotiations with Russia. Optimism about a peace deal briefly boosted Zelenskyy's market price, reflecting hopes for a Nobel Peace Prize recognition.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado rallies thousands in Madrid, praises Trump’s role in Venezuela
Machado drew a large crowd in Madrid and publicly praised Trump’s role in ousting Maduro, reinforcing her Nobel Peace Prize credentials and maintaining some market interest, though her price remained low due to geopolitical uncertainties.
International Court of Justice hears Myanmar’s defense against genocide allegations
International Court of Justice plunges to 3%46%
The ICJ’s hearings on Myanmar’s military campaign against the Rohingya minority brought international legal attention, affecting the market perception of the International Court of Justice as a peace actor.
Russian drone strikes cause blackouts in Ukraine amid ongoing conflict
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 3%3%
Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian regions caused major blackouts, highlighting the ongoing conflict and reducing optimism for Zelenskyy's Nobel chances, reflected in his market price drop.
Brazil’s President Lula defends Pope Leo XIV amid Trump’s criticism
Pope Leo XIV rises to 7%2%
On November 14, 2025, Brazil’s President Lula publicly defended Pope Leo XIV against Donald Trump’s attacks, reinforcing the pope’s international support and peace advocacy, which influenced market sentiment positively for the pope.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Nobel market price hits low point
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 2%1%
As peace talks remained stalled and geopolitical focus shifted to the Middle East, market confidence in Zelenskyy as a Nobel candidate declined significantly.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Nobel Peace Prize probability hits low of 2%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy's perceived chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize declined significantly as market focus shifted toward other geopolitical developments and candidates.
International Court of Justice case on Gaza escalates, drawing criticism from Trump
International Court of Justice plunges to 3%46%
Trump publicly dismissed the ICJ’s involvement in the Gaza conflict, calling it a distraction from his peace agenda. The criticism reduced confidence in the court’s relevance to the Nobel prize, pushing its price from 49% to 3%.
Trump links Greenland takeover stance to not receiving Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump dips to 22%3%
Trump publicly linked his aggressive stance on Greenland to his failure to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, expressing frustration in a message to Norway's prime minister. This statement affected Trump's market price negatively.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump rises to 25%3%
President Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions and influenced Trump's market price positively amid geopolitical attention.
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 27%6%
Machado met with President Donald Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbol of gratitude for his role in the capture of Nicolás Maduro. Trump accepted the medal, which the Nobel Institute stated cannot be transferred or shared, causing a notable market reaction.
Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump at White House meeting
Donald Trump rises to 25%1%
Machado met with Trump and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbol of gratitude for his commitment to Venezuelan freedom, causing a sustained increase in Trump's market price.
UNRWA faces funding cuts after Trump’s Gaza cease‑fire plan stalls
UNRWA plunges to 9%41%
Trump’s remarks that his Greenland stance jeopardized the Nobel prize and his hard‑line approach to the Gaza cease‑fire led donor nations to pause funding for UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees. The news drove UNRWA’s price down from 50% to 9% as market participants saw its chances of winning the prize evaporate.
Donald Trump links Greenland stance to not receiving Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump rises to 22%4%
Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This statement reinforced Trump's association with the prize in public discourse, supporting a moderate increase in his market price.
Donald Trump links Greenland policy stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump jumps to 25%6%
Trump sent a text to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions and influenced market perceptions of Trump's Nobel prospects.
María Corina Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, praises Trump’s role in Venezuela
Donald Trump jumps to 26%7%
Machado held a major rally in Madrid, emphasizing Trump’s unique commitment to Venezuelan freedom and distancing herself from Spain’s Prime Minister. This reinforced Trump's association with the Nobel Peace Prize and Venezuelan democracy, supporting his market price.
Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, praises Trump’s role in Venezuela
Donald Trump rises to 21%3%
During a European tour, Machado rallied thousands in Madrid, praising Trump’s military operation that ousted Maduro and reaffirming her commitment to democratic transition in Venezuela. This event sustained market interest in Trump’s candidacy for the prize, supporting his price.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Vatican to mend ties amid Trump-Pope tensions
Donald Trump dips to 24%4%
In early November 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the Vatican to ease tensions caused by Donald Trump’s criticisms of Pope Leo XIV, signaling diplomatic efforts that influenced market perceptions of Trump and the pope’s prospects.
Donald Trump's Nobel Prize market price peaks amid ongoing speculation
Donald Trump dips to 24%3%
Despite the Nobel Institute's clarification, market interest in Donald Trump as a potential Nobel recipient saw a temporary surge, peaking at 28% before stabilizing.
Donald Trump's Nobel Peace Prize probability peaks at 28%
Donald Trump jumps to 26%5%
Market sentiment for Donald Trump reached its peak during the analysis window, likely driven by ongoing discussions regarding his role in international peace efforts and his high-profile interactions with global leaders.
Seven nations publicly nominate Donald Trump for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
A coordinated public nomination campaign by seven countries boosted Donald Trump's profile as a leading candidate for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, driving up his market odds significantly in late October 2025.
President Trump threatens 10% tariffs on eight European nations over Greenland dispute
Donald Trump jumps to 27%9%
Trump announced a 10% import tax on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, the UK, France, Germany and the Netherlands, linking the move to his disappointment over the Nobel decision. The aggressive trade threat lifted Trump’s price to a peak of 27% and caused further declines for all other candidates.
Japan PM Takaichi nominates Trump for Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump jumps to 21%10%
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced her nomination of Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, adding to the international momentum for Trump as a 2026 candidate.
Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi Nominates Trump for Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump surges to 28%17%
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced she would nominate Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, boosting Trump's market price and triggering a significant rally in his outcome.
Machado dedicates Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump, praises his role in Venezuela
Donald Trump rises to 21%2%
Machado publicly dedicated her Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump, crediting him for his historic role in the democratic transition in Venezuela, which boosted Trump's market price significantly.
Nobel Institute clarifies Machado cannot transfer or share Nobel Peace Prize with Trump
Donald Trump dips to 18%2%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that the Nobel Peace Prize cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared after announcement, dashing Machado's hopes of giving or sharing her prize with Trump. This clarification tempered market enthusiasm for Trump, stabilizing his price.
Machado meets Trump at White House, presents Nobel Peace Prize medal
Donald Trump jumps to 27%6%
Machado presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump during a White House meeting, praising his support for Venezuelan democracy. This event reinforced Trump's association with the prize, causing a price increase.
Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%2%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute stated that the Nobel Peace Prize is final and cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared, countering Machado's suggestion of giving or sharing the prize with Trump. This clarification tempered expectations about Trump's chances and affected market prices.
María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
Machado met with President Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in the Venezuelan democratic transition. This event boosted Trump's market price significantly, reflecting speculation about his association with the prize.
International Court of Justice issues advisory opinion supporting UNRWA's humanitarian role
International Court of Justice surges to 23%20%
The ICJ dismissed Israel's allegations against UNRWA and emphasized Israel's obligation to ensure humanitarian aid to Gaza, providing some legal backing to UNRWA and briefly stabilizing its market position.
Donald Trump’s public profile rises with political stunts and tax policy promotion
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
Trump’s staged event delivering McDonald’s to the Oval Office and promoting tax policies increased his visibility and market price, reflecting renewed public attention and political influence.
ICJ delivers advisory opinion on Israel’s obligations to UN agencies
International Court of Justice plunges to 3%46%
The ICJ issued an advisory opinion obligating Israel to allow UN agencies, including UNRWA, to operate in Gaza. The decision drew intense media attention and caused the market’s ICJ probability to tumble from 49 % to 3 % within two days.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
María Corina Machado was announced as the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, raising her profile and sparking speculation about her influence and potential future recognition, impacting her market price.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norway's prime minister
Donald Trump dips to 17%3%
President Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions with European allies and affected Trump's market perception negatively due to diplomatic fallout.
Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%1%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others. This undercut speculation that Machado could give her prize to Trump, affecting market prices for both.
Norwegian Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%2%
The Nobel Institute stated that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others, countering Machado's intention to share the prize with Trump. This clarification limited Trump's chances of winning the prize himself, affecting market prices accordingly.
Israeli forces raid UNRWA compound amid ongoing conflict
UNRWA plunges to 9%41%
Israeli police forcibly entered the UNRWA compound in East Jerusalem as part of a campaign against the agency, which provides aid to Palestinian refugees. This heightened tensions and negatively impacted UNRWA's market price.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
María Corina Machado met with President Donald Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in Venezuela's political transition. This event boosted Trump's market price and caused a sharp drop in Machado's own price as the market reassessed their relative chances.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado awarded 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to María Corina Machado for her work promoting democratic rights in Venezuela, causing a surge in related market prices and setting the stage for subsequent events involving Donald Trump.
Nobel Institute reiterates prize cannot be transferred or shared after Machado’s gesture
Donald Trump jumps to 27%8%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that Nobel prizes cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared, tempering expectations that Trump could inherit the award and contributing to a rapid drop in his price the following day.
Trump's Greenland stance tied to Nobel Peace Prize snub as he threatens to take over territory
Donald Trump drops to 20%8%
Trump linked his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, telling Norway's prime minister he no longer felt an obligation to think purely of peace. This caused a sharp price drop for Trump as the market reacted negatively to his political rhetoric and threats.
Pope Leo XIV presides over canonization of new saints at Vatican
Pope Leo XIV's high-profile religious event at the Vatican reinforced his global visibility and pastoral leadership, positively impacting his market perception as a Nobel Peace Prize contender.
Trump meets Venezuelan opposition leader Machado, presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal
Donald Trump drops to 20%8%
Trump met with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal. This caused a significant price drop for Trump as the market reacted negatively to the political gesture and the Nobel Committee's statement that the prize cannot be shared.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
María Corina Machado was announced as the Nobel Peace Prize winner, boosting her market price initially and setting the stage for subsequent interactions involving the prize and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Nobel Institute rules out transferring or sharing the Peace Prize with Trump
Donald Trump drops to 21%7%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute clarified that the prize cannot be transferred, dampening speculation that Trump could win and causing his price to retreat from its recent high toward the low‑20s range.
Donald Trump receives Nobel Peace Prize medal from María Corina Machado at the White House
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
Machado presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump during a closed‑door meeting, prompting a surge in market confidence that Trump could be a contender for the 2026 prize, pushing his price from 11% to 19% the next day.
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani price drops following regional developments
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 3%47%
The price for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani dropped significantly as market focus shifted away from his candidacy during the analysis window.
María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for promoting democracy in Venezuela
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for her efforts to promote democratic rights in Venezuela. This announcement caused a sharp drop in market prices for other candidates and a surge in Machado's price.
Nobel Institute says Venezuelan leader Machado can’t give Peace Prize to Trump
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that the prize cannot be transferred or shared, which dampened the market's reaction to the initial presentation.
Nobel Institute denies Machado can transfer prize to Trump
Donald Trump dips to 18%1%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute stated the prize cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others, causing a sharp decline in Trump's price after initial positive reaction.
Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 17%3%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others. This statement was significant in the context of Machado's gesture to Trump and affected market perceptions about the legitimacy of prize transfer.
Nobel Institute clarifies Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 9%40%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that the prize cannot be transferred, which dampened the momentum for candidates like Machado who sought to share the honor with Trump.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 7%42%
María Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize for her work promoting democratic rights in Venezuela, which initially boosted her market price and drew attention to her as a potential 2026 winner. This event set the stage for subsequent interactions involving Donald Trump and the prize.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado dedicates Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
After winning the Nobel Peace Prize, Machado dedicated the award to Trump, praising his role in the U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro. This boosted Trump's market price as it linked him symbolically to the prize.
Pope Leo XIV begins African tour emphasizing peace amid global conflicts
Pope Leo XIV plunges to 5%45%
Pope Leo XIV started his four-nation African visit with a focus on peace, reconciliation, and addressing conflicts, which boosted his market perception as a strong peace advocate, causing his price to stabilize at a low level after an initial drop.
Cameroon separatists announce 3-day ceasefire for Pope Leo XIV’s visit
Pope Leo XIV plunges to 5%45%
English-speaking separatists in Cameroon declared a temporary pause in fighting to allow safe travel for Pope Leo XIV, highlighting the pope's influence on peace efforts and positively impacting his market price.
UNRWA facilities in East Jerusalem targeted by Israeli authorities
UNRWA plunges to 9%41%
Israeli authorities moved to disconnect utilities and demolish parts of UNRWA facilities in East Jerusalem, signaling a major escalation in the campaign against the agency.
Trump and Pope Leo XIV engage in public dispute over war and peace messaging
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
Trump’s criticisms of Pope Leo XIV’s peace preaching amid the Iran war sparked a high-profile clash, increasing Trump’s market price while diminishing the pope’s, reflecting political polarization.
Trump brushes off Zelensky’s request, fixates on Nobel Peace Prize
Volodymyr Zelenskyy plunges to 3%47%
During a White House meeting, Zelensky pressed for Tomahawk missiles while Trump repeatedly emphasized his lack of a Nobel Peace Prize. Media coverage of Trump’s focus shifted attention away from Zelensky, sending Zelensky’s market price down from 50 % to 3 % by 19 Oct.
Pope Leo XIV presides over canonization of new saints at Vatican
Pope Leo XIV plunges to 5%45%
On October 19, 2025, Pope Leo XIV presided over the canonization of seven new Catholic saints, reinforcing his pastoral image and global religious influence, which contributed to market interest in his Nobel Peace Prize candidacy.
UNRWA facilities targeted in east Jerusalem
UNRWA plunges to 9%41%
Israeli forces targeted UNRWA facilities, contributing to a sharp decline in the market's confidence in UNRWA as a potential Nobel Peace Prize recipient.
Norwegian Nobel Committee awards 2025 Peace Prize to María Corina Machado
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
The Nobel Committee announced Machado as the 2025 laureate, sparking speculation that she might share the medal with Donald Trump, who had publicly courted the prize. Traders pushed Trump’s price up from 11% to 20% as the market priced in a possible Trump win, while all other outcomes fell.
Maria Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
Machado met Trump at the White House and handed him her Nobel medal, a symbolic gesture that raised expectations that Trump might be a contender for the 2026 prize, pushing his market price from 11% to 19%.
Yulia Navalnaya honored with Brigitte Award in Berlin
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 7%42%
Yulia Navalnaya received a Brigitte Honorary Award in Berlin and gave a televised interview, drawing global media attention to her anti‑Putin activism. The surprise positive coverage sent her market probability sharply down from 49 % to 7 % on 19 Oct, reflecting market participants betting she is unlikely to win the Nobel.
Iranian human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh detained in Tehran
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
Nasrin Sotoudeh, a prominent Iranian human rights lawyer and Nobel laureate candidate, was detained by Iranian intelligence, highlighting ongoing repression in Iran and raising concerns about human rights. This event likely decreased market confidence in Iranian-related candidates.
Nobel Institute clarifies that the Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
Following reports that Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado intended to share her Nobel Peace Prize with Donald Trump, the Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming the prize is final and cannot be transferred.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado 'grateful' to Trump after giving him her Nobel medal
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
Machado presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump at the White House, a symbolic gesture that drew significant media attention and impacted the market's perception of the prize's status.
Norwegian Nobel Committee announces 287 candidates for 2026 Peace Prize
The Norwegian Nobel Committee revealed a list of 287 candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, including 208 individuals and 79 organizations. This broad candidate pool sparked initial market interest and speculation, particularly around high-profile nominees like Donald Trump and Yulia Navalnaya, influencing early price movements.
Trump's Nobel nomination submitted after deadline
Donald Trump jumps to 21%10%
Trump's nomination for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize was submitted after the January 31 deadline, increasing speculation he might be a serious contender for 2026. This news triggered a price increase for Trump on October 16.
Trump ties Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in text to Norway’s leader
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
President Donald Trump sent a text to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre saying Norway’s decision not to award him the Nobel Peace Prize justified his aggressive policy on Greenland. The controversy raised Trump’s profile as a potential laureate, pushing his market price up and causing sharp declines for other contenders.
Nobel Committee awards 2026 Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado
The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced Machado as the 2026 laureate, sparking speculation that Trump might be a contender for the prize and prompting traders to shift support to him, driving his price from 11% to 21% and pushing all other outcomes toward single‑digit levels.
287 candidates nominated for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, Trump likely among them
The Norwegian Nobel Committee reported 287 candidates, including 208 individuals and 79 organizations, with leaders of Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan reportedly having nominated Trump.
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 nomination process opens with deadline set for January 31
The Nobel Peace Prize 2026 nomination period officially began in mid-October 2025, with a deadline of January 31, 2026. This event marked the start of the nomination and selection process, influencing early market prices as candidates were considered for nomination.
María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Venezuelan democracy efforts
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
The Nobel Committee awarded the 2025 Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, recognized for promoting democratic rights and opposing dictatorship in Venezuela. This announcement caused a sharp drop in prices for other candidates, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy and UNRWA, as Machado was not listed but her win affected market expectations.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado dedicates Nobel Peace Prize to Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 17%6%
Following the announcement of her Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado publicly dedicated the award to Donald Trump, signaling a strong alignment that boosted his profile in the market.
Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump in Washington
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
Machado, a Nobel laureate, met with Trump and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal, a gesture that initially boosted Trump's market price as he campaigned for the prize.
Donald Trump begins public criticisms of Pope Leo XIV’s peace message
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
Starting mid-October 2025, Donald Trump publicly criticized Pope Leo XIV’s calls for peace regarding the Iran war, sparking a high-profile feud that increased market attention on both figures and caused price volatility.
Trump reportedly nominated by leaders of Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan
Multiple sources reported that leaders of Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan nominated Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, though the Norwegian Nobel Committee could not verify these nominations.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado wins Nobel Peace Prize
María Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her work promoting democratic rights in Venezuela, setting the stage for future Nobel-related news and market activity.
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