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icon for Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Canada

Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election: 2nd Place

icon for Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Canada

Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election: 2nd Place

Ahsanul Hafiz 99.8%

Fatima Shaban <1%

Noor Tarun <1%

Mark Bekkering <1%

Polymarket

$3,322 Vol.

Ahsanul Hafiz 99.8%

Fatima Shaban <1%

Noor Tarun <1%

Mark Bekkering <1%

Polymarket

$3,322 Vol.

icon for Fatima Shaban

Fatima Shaban

$334 Vol.

No

icon for Noor Tarun

Noor Tarun

$841 Vol.

No

icon for Ahsanul Hafiz

Ahsanul Hafiz

$1,829 Vol.

Yes

icon for Mark Bekkering

Mark Bekkering

$149 Vol.

No

icon for Chris Rees

Chris Rees

$169 Vol.

No

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).The September 3, 2026 by-election results position Liberal candidate Ahsanul Hafiz firmly in second place behind NDP frontrunner Fatima Shaban, aligning with pre-vote polling averages and the riding's recent history of NDP strength. Shaban benefited from established party support on local issues such as housing and affordability following Doly Begum's resignation, while Hafiz consolidated Liberal backing after securing the nomination and leveraging his business and community profile. Progressive Conservative candidate Noor Tarun and others trailed further back, limiting challenges to the middle position. Official Elections Ontario tallies would need substantial adjustments from reported shares or an unforeseen surge by a minor contender to alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given the confirmed margins.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$3,322
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.elections.on.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).The September 3, 2026 by-election results position Liberal candidate Ahsanul Hafiz firmly in second place behind NDP frontrunner Fatima Shaban, aligning with pre-vote polling averages and the riding's recent history of NDP strength. Shaban benefited from established party support on local issues such as housing and affordability following Doly Begum's resignation, while Hafiz consolidated Liberal backing after securing the nomination and leveraging his business and community profile. Progressive Conservative candidate Noor Tarun and others trailed further back, limiting challenges to the middle position. Official Elections Ontario tallies would need substantial adjustments from reported shares or an unforeseen surge by a minor contender to alter the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given the confirmed margins.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$3,322
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.elections.on.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ahsanul Hafiz" at 100%, followed by "Fatima Shaban" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election: 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 3, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election: 2nd Place," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election: 2nd Place" is "Ahsanul Hafiz" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Fatima Shaban" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.