James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, positioning him as the certain general election opponent. Trader consensus now centers on the May 26 Republican primary runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Paxton gaining ground in recent polls like the University of Houston survey showing him ahead 48%-45% among likely voters as of early May. Escalating attack ads, record primary spending exceeding $69 million, and Paxton's appeal to the GOP base have driven the 62.5% implied probability for a Talarico-Paxton matchup over Talarico-Cornyn at 37.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of the runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas Senate Election Matchup
Texas Senate Election Matchup
Talarico & Paxton 63%
Talarico & Cornyn 38%
Crockett & Hunt <1%
Crockett & Paxton <1%
$721,384 Vol.
$721,384 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Talarico & Paxton
63%
Talarico & Cornyn
38%
Crockett & Hunt
<1%
Crockett & Paxton
<1%
Talarico & Hunt
<1%
Crockett & Cornyn
<1%
Other
<1%
Talarico & Paxton 63%
Talarico & Cornyn 38%
Crockett & Hunt <1%
Crockett & Paxton <1%
$721,384 Vol.
$721,384 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Talarico & Paxton
$275,277 Vol.
63%
Talarico & Cornyn
$197,079 Vol.
38%
Crockett & Hunt
$24,730 Vol.
<1%
Crockett & Paxton
$107,066 Vol.
<1%
Talarico & Hunt
$24,058 Vol.
<1%
Crockett & Cornyn
$65,651 Vol.
<1%
Other
$27,524 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, positioning him as the certain general election opponent. Trader consensus now centers on the May 26 Republican primary runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Paxton gaining ground in recent polls like the University of Houston survey showing him ahead 48%-45% among likely voters as of early May. Escalating attack ads, record primary spending exceeding $69 million, and Paxton's appeal to the GOP base have driven the 62.5% implied probability for a Talarico-Paxton matchup over Talarico-Cornyn at 37.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of the runoff.
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$721,384End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, positioning him as the certain general election opponent. Trader consensus now centers on the May 26 Republican primary runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Paxton gaining ground in recent polls like the University of Houston survey showing him ahead 48%-45% among likely voters as of early May. Escalating attack ads, record primary spending exceeding $69 million, and Paxton's appeal to the GOP base have driven the 62.5% implied probability for a Talarico-Paxton matchup over Talarico-Cornyn at 37.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of the runoff.
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections.
This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution.
If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$721,384End Date
Mar 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for Texas' U.S. Senate seat after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 primary, positioning him as the certain general election opponent. Trader consensus now centers on the May 26 Republican primary runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Paxton gaining ground in recent polls like the University of Houston survey showing him ahead 48%-45% among likely voters as of early May. Escalating attack ads, record primary spending exceeding $69 million, and Paxton's appeal to the GOP base have driven the 62.5% implied probability for a Talarico-Paxton matchup over Talarico-Cornyn at 37.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessments ahead of the runoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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