Recent Middle East conflict has driven sharp rises in crude oil, wholesale gas, and electricity prices, pushing UK CPI to 3.1% in August 2026 and prompting the Bank of England to revise its 2026 Q4 projection upward to around 3.75%. These energy effects, both direct via household bills and indirect through supply chains, form the dominant catalyst behind the 42.4% market-implied probability on the 3.5–3.9% annual range. Trader consensus reflects the BoE’s assessment of upside risks to the inflation outlook amid stable but elevated core measures near 2.6%, with the next Ofgem price-cap reset and November MPC meeting as key near-term data points that could shift probabilities if futures curves moderate or geopolitical tensions ease.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.5–3.9% 42.4%
3.0–3.4% 20%
4.0-4.4% 15.7%
2.5–2.9% 9.9%
$120,179 Vol.
$120,179 Vol.
Jan 19, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
2%
1.5–1.9%
4%
2.0–2.4%
2%
2.5–2.9%
10%
3.0–3.4%
20%
3.5–3.9%
42%
4.0-4.4%
16%
4.5%+
8%
3.5–3.9% 42.4%
3.0–3.4% 20%
4.0-4.4% 15.7%
2.5–2.9% 9.9%
$120,179 Vol.
$120,179 Vol.
Jan 19, 2027
<1.0%
$960 Vol.
<1%
1.0–1.4%
$1,500 Vol.
2%
1.5–1.9%
$2,712 Vol.
4%
2.0–2.4%
$18,911 Vol.
2%
2.5–2.9%
$22,708 Vol.
10%
3.0–3.4%
$468 Vol.
20%
3.5–3.9%
$49,432 Vol.
42%
4.0-4.4%
$14,361 Vol.
16%
4.5%+
$9,128 Vol.
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent Middle East conflict has driven sharp rises in crude oil, wholesale gas, and electricity prices, pushing UK CPI to 3.1% in August 2026 and prompting the Bank of England to revise its 2026 Q4 projection upward to around 3.75%. These energy effects, both direct via household bills and indirect through supply chains, form the dominant catalyst behind the 42.4% market-implied probability on the 3.5–3.9% annual range. Trader consensus reflects the BoE’s assessment of upside risks to the inflation outlook amid stable but elevated core measures near 2.6%, with the next Ofgem price-cap reset and November MPC meeting as key near-term data points that could shift probabilities if futures curves moderate or geopolitical tensions ease.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$120,179End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarRecent Middle East conflict has driven sharp rises in crude oil, wholesale gas, and electricity prices, pushing UK CPI to 3.1% in August 2026 and prompting the Bank of England to revise its 2026 Q4 projection upward to around 3.75%. These energy effects, both direct via household bills and indirect through supply chains, form the dominant catalyst behind the 42.4% market-implied probability on the 3.5–3.9% annual range. Trader consensus reflects the BoE’s assessment of upside risks to the inflation outlook amid stable but elevated core measures near 2.6%, with the next Ofgem price-cap reset and November MPC meeting as key near-term data points that could shift probabilities if futures curves moderate or geopolitical tensions ease.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volume
$120,179End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East conflict has driven sharp rises in crude oil, wholesale gas, and electricity prices, pushing UK CPI to 3.1% in August 2026 and prompting the Bank of England to revise its 2026 Q4 projection upward to around 3.75%. These energy effects, both direct via household bills and indirect through supply chains, form the dominant catalyst behind the 42.4% market-implied probability on the 3.5–3.9% annual range. Trader consensus reflects the BoE’s assessment of upside risks to the inflation outlook amid stable but elevated core measures near 2.6%, with the next Ofgem price-cap reset and November MPC meeting as key near-term data points that could shift probabilities if futures curves moderate or geopolitical tensions ease.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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