Traders see little prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 due to persistent deadlock over territorial concessions. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from additional areas in Donetsk and recognition of occupied land, positions Kyiv has consistently rejected as threats to sovereignty and security guarantees. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September produced no breakthrough, and Kremlin statements on September 21 confirmed no progress in negotiations since trilateral rounds ended in February. Intensifying strikes on energy infrastructure and battlefield advances by both sides have sustained hostilities, with proposed October talks facing the same core disputes and limited incentives for compromise ahead of winter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
10% chance
$2,776,827 Vol.
$2,776,827 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
10% chance
$2,776,827 Vol.
$2,776,827 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders see little prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 due to persistent deadlock over territorial concessions. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from additional areas in Donetsk and recognition of occupied land, positions Kyiv has consistently rejected as threats to sovereignty and security guarantees. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September produced no breakthrough, and Kremlin statements on September 21 confirmed no progress in negotiations since trilateral rounds ended in February. Intensifying strikes on energy infrastructure and battlefield advances by both sides have sustained hostilities, with proposed October talks facing the same core disputes and limited incentives for compromise ahead of winter.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,776,827End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders see little prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 due to persistent deadlock over territorial concessions. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from additional areas in Donetsk and recognition of occupied land, positions Kyiv has consistently rejected as threats to sovereignty and security guarantees. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September produced no breakthrough, and Kremlin statements on September 21 confirmed no progress in negotiations since trilateral rounds ended in February. Intensifying strikes on energy infrastructure and battlefield advances by both sides have sustained hostilities, with proposed October talks facing the same core disputes and limited incentives for compromise ahead of winter.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,776,827End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders see little prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 due to persistent deadlock over territorial concessions. Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from additional areas in Donetsk and recognition of occupied land, positions Kyiv has consistently rejected as threats to sovereignty and security guarantees. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv in early September produced no breakthrough, and Kremlin statements on September 21 confirmed no progress in negotiations since trilateral rounds ended in February. Intensifying strikes on energy infrastructure and battlefield advances by both sides have sustained hostilities, with proposed October talks facing the same core disputes and limited incentives for compromise ahead of winter.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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