**US President Donald Trump stated in July 2026 that Washington would lift CAATSA sanctions on Türkiye’s defense procurement agency, imposed in 2020 over its S-400 purchase from Russia, describing the measures as unnecessary for allies.** Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has since confirmed ongoing work with US counterparts on “creative ideas” to address the underlying S-400 dispute, with both sides expressing political will to proceed. As of mid-September 2026, Fidan highlighted an expected Erdoğan-Trump meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly as a venue for further progress, while US Ambassador Tom Barrack described the issue as resolvable through continued dialogue. Any waiver triggers a congressional review period, and separate statutory conditions tied to F-35 transfers remain in place. Traders are monitoring these bilateral steps and procedural timelines for signs of concrete action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$49,413 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
October 31
24%
December 31
37%
$49,413 Vol.
October 31
$17,041 Vol.
24%
December 31
$17,911 Vol.
37%
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**US President Donald Trump stated in July 2026 that Washington would lift CAATSA sanctions on Türkiye’s defense procurement agency, imposed in 2020 over its S-400 purchase from Russia, describing the measures as unnecessary for allies.** Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has since confirmed ongoing work with US counterparts on “creative ideas” to address the underlying S-400 dispute, with both sides expressing political will to proceed. As of mid-September 2026, Fidan highlighted an expected Erdoğan-Trump meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly as a venue for further progress, while US Ambassador Tom Barrack described the issue as resolvable through continued dialogue. Any waiver triggers a congressional review period, and separate statutory conditions tied to F-35 transfers remain in place. Traders are monitoring these bilateral steps and procedural timelines for signs of concrete action.
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ET
Volume
$49,413End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**US President Donald Trump stated in July 2026 that Washington would lift CAATSA sanctions on Türkiye’s defense procurement agency, imposed in 2020 over its S-400 purchase from Russia, describing the measures as unnecessary for allies.** Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has since confirmed ongoing work with US counterparts on “creative ideas” to address the underlying S-400 dispute, with both sides expressing political will to proceed. As of mid-September 2026, Fidan highlighted an expected Erdoğan-Trump meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly as a venue for further progress, while US Ambassador Tom Barrack described the issue as resolvable through continued dialogue. Any waiver triggers a congressional review period, and separate statutory conditions tied to F-35 transfers remain in place. Traders are monitoring these bilateral steps and procedural timelines for signs of concrete action.
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify.
Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$49,413End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 2:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US President Donald Trump stated in July 2026 that Washington would lift CAATSA sanctions on Türkiye’s defense procurement agency, imposed in 2020 over its S-400 purchase from Russia, describing the measures as unnecessary for allies.** Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has since confirmed ongoing work with US counterparts on “creative ideas” to address the underlying S-400 dispute, with both sides expressing political will to proceed. As of mid-September 2026, Fidan highlighted an expected Erdoğan-Trump meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly as a venue for further progress, while US Ambassador Tom Barrack described the issue as resolvable through continued dialogue. Any waiver triggers a congressional review period, and separate statutory conditions tied to F-35 transfers remain in place. Traders are monitoring these bilateral steps and procedural timelines for signs of concrete action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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