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Politics·Fed

What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?

icon for What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Politics·Fed

What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?

NEW

$16,901 Vol.

Aug 28, 2026
Polymarket

$16,901 Vol.

Polymarket

Bank / Asset 10+ times

$110 Vol.

35%

Task Force 5+ times

$620 Vol.

23%

Stable 5+ times

$374 Vol.

18%

AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times

$1,362 Vol.

67%

Challenge

$2,088 Vol.

71%

Framework

$1,334 Vol.

57%

Prediction / Predictive

$886 Vol.

41%

CapEx / Capital Expenditure

$615 Vol.

51%

Regime

$708 Vol.

67%

Integrity

$722 Vol.

38%

Productivity

$922 Vol.

79%

Independent / Independence

$181 Vol.

65%

2008 / Financial Crisis

$970 Vol.

49%

Good Day

$1,956 Vol.

35%

Good Morning

$430 Vol.

59%

Trump

$765 Vol.

5%

Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency

$1,392 Vol.

18%

Gold

$920 Vol.

9%

Too Late

$100 Vol.

8%

-No Qualifying Event-

$448 Vol.

5%

Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdfFed Chair Kevin Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole address, his first major speech since taking office in May 2026, centers on long-term monetary framework questions rather than near-term rate guidance. Recent FOMC statements have shortened dramatically to roughly 130 words, eliminated forward guidance, and omitted dot-plot projections, reflecting Warsh’s stated preference for markets to focus on economic fundamentals over Fed signals. In July remarks, he signaled the Fed is “not constrained by market prices” while pledging strict inflation discipline and structural reforms to data and models. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75 percent and the symposium theme on financial innovation, traders are watching for any hints on average-inflation targeting revisions or communications changes ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Volume
$16,901
End Date
Aug 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdfFed Chair Kevin Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole address, his first major speech since taking office in May 2026, centers on long-term monetary framework questions rather than near-term rate guidance. Recent FOMC statements have shortened dramatically to roughly 130 words, eliminated forward guidance, and omitted dot-plot projections, reflecting Warsh’s stated preference for markets to focus on economic fundamentals over Fed signals. In July remarks, he signaled the Fed is “not constrained by market prices” while pledging strict inflation discipline and structural reforms to data and models. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75 percent and the symposium theme on financial innovation, traders are watching for any hints on average-inflation targeting revisions or communications changes ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No".

The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event.

For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Volume
$16,901
End Date
Aug 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by August 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the audio/video of the listed event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Productivity" at 79%, followed by "Challenge" at 71%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?" has generated $16.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?" is "Productivity" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Challenge" at 71%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.